329
FXUS61 KALY 050626
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
226 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY.
2) INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALSO RETURN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, MAINLY IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY, GIVING WAY TO MEAGER HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AS A WEAK TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE ADVANCE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WHILE
THESE FEATURES WON'T QUITE ROTATE INTO OUR REGION, THEY WILL BE
THE DRIVING FORCING MECHANISMS BEHIND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. OVERALL,
THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK. HOWEVER,
OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO A STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH WILL
ENSURE WARM, MOIST AIR GETS USHERED INTO THE REGION AND FORCE
REQUISITE DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE CHALLENGE WITH THURSDAY'S FORECAST, PARTICULARLY PERTAINING
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, LIES WITH THE
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. A WEAK SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY
TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, DRIVING SOME INITIAL SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION MARRYING UP TO
THE HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH, IT IS VERY POSSIBLE
THAT WE COULD HAVE SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO LIMIT SEVERE- LEVEL
STORM GROWTH. THAT SAID, GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY (SEE KEY MESSAGE 2 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS), LATEST CAMS
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH WEAK TO MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND AREAS SOUTH
WHERE SPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE THEREFORE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD DUE TO PRECIPITATION LOADING AND DYNAMIC COOLING (LAPSE
RATES ~6 C/KM). ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL ALSO THEREFORE BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN
UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWATS (~2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL) UP TO 2" AND
TALL, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY
OUR URBAN AREAS FOR POTENTIAL ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING GIVEN VERY
WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AFTER LAST WEEK'S EVENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING HEAT AND HUMIDITY BACK TO
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS REACHING ~2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE CONTENT COURTESY OF PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DRIVE HIGHS WIDELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BOTH DAYS. CLOUD COVER REMAINS A
QUESTION ON THURSDAY SO THE MAGNITUDE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY
THEREFORE IS ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT THE GREATEST FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOCATED
IN VALLEY AREAS BOTH DAYS WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE
LOW TO POTENTIALLY MID/UPPER 90S. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE NEAR FUTURE PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY PRODUCE INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS
THROUGH DAYBREAK AT KGFL AND KPSF. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z/THU, WITH MAINLY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AT KPOU BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/THU,
POSSIBLY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KT BY LATE MORNING,
THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/07
AVIATION...24
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