114
FXUS61 KALY 051745
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR EASTERN ULSTER, WESTERN DUTCHESS AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTIES FROM 11 AM THURSDAY THROUGH 8 PM
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, PARTICULARLY ON
THURSDAY.
2) INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALSO RETURN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, MAINLY IN
EASTERN ULSTER, WESTERN DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASES THU INTO FRI, AS A
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BERMUDA HIGH
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE
LOWER 70S TO MID 70S(SOUTHERN AREAS), WITH PWAT ANOMALIES
INCREASING TO +1 TO +3 STDEV(FROM NAEFS). CONVECTION WILL BE
MOST LIKELY DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK
MUCH OF THE TIME, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIONED
NORTH/WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE FRONT WILL ONLY MAKE
SLOW/GRADUAL SOUTHEAST PROGRESS DUE TO THE BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AT 60-70% THU AND FRI. BOTH
DAYS SHOULD NOT BE WASHOUTS, ALTHOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/T- STORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
SBCAPE FORECAST FROM THE REFS LOOKS MORE ROBUST NOW, WITH
POTENTIALLY 2000-3000 J/KG FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS, ALTHOUGH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING IS A MITIGATING FACTOR ALONG WITH FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS DUE TO PRECIP LOADING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO HAVE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OUTLOOK FROM
AROUND THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTH AND WEST.
AI NWP CONVECTIVE HAZARDS FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS FRI, ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH/EAST.
BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS, TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATER IN THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING. CAPE LOOKS SIMILAR TO THU, ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY
BE A BIT WEAKER. WITH HIGH PWATS CONTINUING, THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
ALSO WITH A HUMID/MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WET ANTECEDENT GROUND
CONDITIONS IN PLACE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WHERE PERSISTENT OR REPEATED DOWNPOURS OCCUR. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH THU
AND FRI.
THE FRONT MAY FINALLY START TO SETTLE SOUTH/EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SAT, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. AGAIN, STORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUN, PROVIDING DRIER CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH OUR REGION POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH, INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR THU INTO
FRI. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 90F,
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL STILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDICES(FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES) IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CT BOTH DAYS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE FEW ZONES LATE THU MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRI EVENING. IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA, PEAK HEAT INDICES
WILL MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 06/06Z FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BY 06/00Z, WINDS DECREASE TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
BETWEEN 06/06Z AND 06/12Z, CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHER FOR MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED FOR IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 8Z TO 12Z. AFTER 12Z, MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD FLUCTUATE DUE TO PASSING LOW CLOUDS. FOR KPOU,
INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR LOW CHANCES OF ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM 3Z TO 12Z. FOR KGFL, KALB, AND KPSF, REMOVED PROB30
GROUPS AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR NO VISIBILITY IMPACTS
FROM RAIN SHOWERS AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS TRENDING TO BE FURTHER
SOUTH FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
CTZ013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NYZ064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...05
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