040
FXUS61 KALY 062311
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
711 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT, BUT NO ADDITIONAL ZONES ADDED INTO
THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS MARGINAL RISK SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH IT'S RATHER CLOSE. WITH ENOUGH SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE, THUNDERSTORMS WILL ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY, BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
2) THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ULSTER,
WESTERN DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OUR REGION REMAINS IN A WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS. THIS
MORNING'S 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.97" AND DEWPOINTS
IN VALLEY AREAS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 70S. A SLOW MOVING
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE, A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A WARM AND MUGGY
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING, SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THERE HASN'T BEEN MUCH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA JUST YET. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS RATHER
POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THANKS TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE, WITH VALUES AROUND 5.5 DEG C/KM. STILL, THE
COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS
ALLOWING FOR MLCAPE VALUES TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. THERE IS SOME SHEAR IN PLACE, WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 30 KTS, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS THANKS TO STRONGER WINDS
WITHIN THE 3-6 KM LAYER.
WHILE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE DAYTIME HEATING, THEY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
SHORT-LIVED, AS THE LIMITED FORCING AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL
PREVENT STORMS FROM GETTING TOO TALL. WHILE THE SHEAR WOULD
SUGGEST SOME STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY ORGANIZE, IT WILL PROBABLY
BE FAIRLY ISOLATED, AS MOST STORMS WON'T GET TALL ENOUGH. CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO COLLAPSING
STORMS, BUT THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE LOOKS FAIRLY ISOLATED AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE HIGH PWATS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. SOILS REMAINS FAIRLY WET ACROSS
THE REGION, SO THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS IN
PLACE. URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WOULD BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLOODING TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
BUT ANY AREA THAT SEEING REPEATED STORMS COULD BE AT RISK.
THROUGH THIS EVENING, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE
BUT WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AFTER SUNSET.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON
FRIDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL STAY FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH OUR
REGION WITHIN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
BOUNDARY WITH WEAK OVERALL FORCING AND POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY, AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME OF THE AI/ML GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MAY BE AT RISK
FOR SOME WIND DAMAGE ON FRIDAY. IT WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID WITH
HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS, SO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT IF AREAS SEE REPEATED STORMS.
SOME CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FLOODING DOWNPOURS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH DEWPOINTS/PWATS,
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE LESS OF A CONCERN FOR SEVERE WINDS ON
SATURDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE A LITTLE CLOSER,
THERE MAY BE MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS, ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE REACHED HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ALREADY TODAY. HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN ULSTER, WESTERN DUTCHESS
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
TOMORROW THROUGH 8 PM. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 90S IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY THANKS TO VERY DEWPOINTS (LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S) AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK
OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA,
HIGH DEWPOINTS AND WARM TEMPS COULD BE HAZARDOUS, SO EVERYONE IS
ENCOURAGED TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY AND TAKE BREAKS IN THE
SHADE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER. SIMILAR TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE
IN PLACE AGAIN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER BY
SATURDAY, WHICH MAY HELP AVOID NEEDING ADDITIONAL HEAT
HEADLINES, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/SAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT. SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT
KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THEREAFTER, FOLLOWING ALL SITES SEEING RAIN TODAY AND CONTINUED
HIGH DEWPOINTS, FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES TONIGHT WITH
LIFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. ANY FOG LIFTS BY AROUND 12Z/FRI WITH
THE RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. WHILE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON TIMING OR LOCATION
OF ANY STORMS TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF UPDATE.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
5-10 KT FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...33
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