602
FXUS61 KALY 080007
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
807 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS SHIFTED THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH, AS
NOW COVERS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GREENE, ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. WPC HAS ALSO INCLUDED PARTS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR TODAY AS WELL.
WHILE OUR AREA IS NOT OUTLOOKED FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER ON
SATURDAY, THERE CONTINUES A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
2) THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ULSTER, WESTERN
DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, OUR REGION REMAINS A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH.
TEMPERATURES HAS REACHED WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST THE REGION
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. ALTHOUGH PWATS ARE
SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY ON THE 12Z KALY
SOUNDING (1.62" VS. 1.90" LAST EVENING), THEY REMAIN ABOVE-
NORMAL. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ABUNDANT INSTABILITY IN
PLACE, WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG, WITH LOCALLY AROUND
1500 J/KG ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. EVEN HIGHER INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER EASTERN PA AND NJ. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO
APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS (AROUND 6 DEG C/KM), BUT THIS IS STILL
ISN'T TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS
GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 20 KTS OR SO, SO NOT TOO HIGH EITHER.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, OVERALL LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS
RATHER WEAK AND THE NEAREST SURFACE BOUNDARY IS WELL WEST OF THE
AREA OVER THE MIDWEST. STILL, THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER CENTRAL NY AND ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA, WHERE SOME SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN
ONGOING. WHILE THE 3KM HRRR DOESN'T SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS
ACTIVITY VERY WELL AT THE MOMENT, RADAR TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SOUTHERN AREAS (SUCH AS THE CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON
VALLEY, TACONICS, AND PARTS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND), COULD BE
IMPACTED BY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
DUE TO THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, BUT THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD KEEP SEVERE STORMS FROM BEING
OVERLY WIDESPREAD.
THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, THE HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL EASILY FALLING IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. IF THIS OCCURS
OVER AN URBAN AREA OR LOCATION THAT HAS SEEN RECENT RAINFALL,
IT COULD QUICKLY CAUSE A FLASH FLOOD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY IF STORMS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. AT THIS TIME,
SOUTHERN AREAS MAY BE MOST AS RISK BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, BUT
REALLY CAN'T RULE IT OUT FOR ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.
STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE THREAT FOR FLOODING DOWNPOURS WILL BE
DONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.
ON SATURDAY, THERE MAY AGAIN BE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STORMS,
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS LOWER THAN TODAY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE ON SATURDAY (MAINLY UNDER 30
KTS), ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY.
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE OR A ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN, BUT THE SPARSER STORM COVERAGE SHOULD KEEP
THESE THREATS MORE LIMITED FOR SATURDAY. THE MAIN TIME WINDOW
FOR SATURDAY WILL BE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS. LUCKILY, DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY, WITH NO THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING
DOWNPOURS FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN
ULSTER, WESTERN DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 70 IN THESE AREAS, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX
TO EXCEED 95 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS FOR THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY, AND TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE AND DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER TO AVOID HEAT-ILLNESS IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE,
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND MUGGY AS WELL, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
ON SATURDAY, IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID ONCE AGAIN. HEAT INDEX
VALUES LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY, BUT WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MANY VALLEY AREAS. DEWPOINTS WILL
START TO FALL ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN THE HEAT INDEX
VALUES FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/SUN...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED AT THE TAF
SITES WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS. THEREAFTER, PARTIAL CLEARING CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME AREAS OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS AT
KGFL/KPOU. ANY FOG OR LOW STRATUS LIFTS WITH THE RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OR LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...33
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