443
FXUS61 KALY 080623
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
223 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF PASSING COLD FRONT, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20-25
MPH POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
2) WARM AND HUMID FOR TODAY, WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
3) ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, INITIATING ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY STEEPER (6-6.5 C/KM) THAN RECENT DAYS
DUE TO SOME COOLING ALOFT AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE
REGION. IN ADDITION, MID LEVELS WILL BE A BIT DRIER. AS
INSTABILITY BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HREFS SUGGESTING MU CAPES
1000-2000 J/KG, GREATEST WITHIN AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY, FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON, BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK MAINTAINS GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR REGION, WE STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE, THOUGH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT MID LEVEL
DRYING AND LOWER PWAT'S (1.25-1.50") COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS,
AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE A BIT LESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID TODAY, THOUGH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES
WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN THE LAST 2 DAYS, GENERALLY 90-95 WITHIN
RIVER VALLEYS AS ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS REACH 85-90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY MORNING, WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS EXPECTED
IN ITS WAKE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 60S
FOR MOST AREAS, WITH EVEN SOME 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO,
DESPITE SIMILAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO TODAY (85-90 IN VALLEYS
AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN), MAX HEAT INDICES
WILL BE EVEN LESS, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S IN VALLEY
AREAS. IT WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT, WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WIND POTENTIALLY GUSTING UP TO
20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE THIS WEEK AS BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST AND
SE CANADA. STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS (H500 WINDS 30-50
KT) ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY
DISTURBANCE THAT PASSES THROUGH, ESPECIALLY SHOULD THEY TRACK
FARTHER NORTH ALLOWING FOR POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION. ONE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THEN AGAIN POSSIBLY LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN TOWARD LATE WEEK. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS WITH EACH SYSTEM THAT PASSES THROUGH FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ALOFT.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. FOG AND LOW STRATUS
LIFTS WITH THE RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING. THERE IS
THE MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 08/18Z - 09/01Z. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXPECT FOR IN THE
VICINITY OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/24
AVIATION...91
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