541
FXUS61 KALY 082337
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
737 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED, AS THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION HAS EXITED OFF TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND. SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, BUT WILL DIMINISH COMPLETELY BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED ACROSS THE
REGION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
2) AFTER A WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY, DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
3) ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STRONG CONVECTION MOVED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE OCCURRED IN
THESE AREAS. WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY NOW EAST OF THE REGION, SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL ONGOING, BUT THIS IS GENERALLY ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SOME CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITHIN STORMS, BUT SEVERE
STORMS ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. BASED ON CAMS, ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: NO CHANGES. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH
EVEN SOME 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO, DESPITE SIMILAR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO TODAY (85-90 IN VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
FOR HIGHER TERRAIN), MAX HEAT INDICES WILL BE EVEN LESS, MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS. IT WILL ALSO BECOME
BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND POTENTIALLY GUSTING UP TO 20-25 MPH AT
TIMES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: NO CHANGES. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE THIS WEEK AS BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST AND
SE CANADA. STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS (H500 WINDS 30-50
KT) ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY
DISTURBANCE THAT PASSES THROUGH, ESPECIALLY SHOULD THEY TRACK
FARTHER NORTH ALLOWING FOR POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION. ONE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THEN AGAIN POSSIBLY LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN TOWARD LATE WEEK. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS WITH EACH SYSTEM THAT PASSES THROUGH FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ALOFT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES BASED ON CAMS
AND RADAR TRENDS. EXPECT ANY LINGERING SCT-BKN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WHICH MAY HELP PREVENT MUCH FOG FROM
DEVELOPING. THE TWO EXCEPTIONS MAY BE KGFL, WHERE THE LOCAL
TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK AND KPSF, WHERE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INCREASED THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF LATE NIGHT FOG. ANY FOG MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS,
WITH VISIBILITY 2SM OR LESS. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE,
ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR ALL SITES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS FOR ALL SITES DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/24/05
AVIATION...27
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