457
FXUS61 KALY 091843
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
243 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO REFLECT CURRENT FORECAST
TIMING AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE,
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A BREEZY AND COMFORTABLE SUMMER DAY TODAY, HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY
AT THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH HELPING
CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS IS
BETWEEN 1 PM AND MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
THE LATEST FORECAST SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION, INCLUDING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
TACONICS, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS, DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING, MOISTURE FROM THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT, AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FOR THOSE LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. TAKING A DEEPER DIVE INTO THE
ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY AND INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS PRESENT ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS.
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. WITH
LATEST FORECAST TRENDS ON THE ENVIRONMENT FOR TOMORROW FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS, THIS INCREASES FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS GOING TO BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ONE THING TO NOTE, THE GROUND
CONTINUES TO BE SATURATED ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS, SO STRONG WIND
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH MAY BE ALL IT TAKES TO UPROOT TREES AND
DAMAGE TREES. HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN ALSO OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY ABOVE THE SURFACE IS
HELPING CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AS THE SUN SETS TOMORROW EVENING, ENERGY AND
INSTABILITY DECREASES HELPING CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKEN THE
ENVIRONMENT NEEDED FOR STRONG STORMS SOUTH OF THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION. FOR LOCATIONS NORTHWARD, WE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAN
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO
PUSH EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS CURRENTLY
SUPPORTED TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST INTO CANADA, BUT BRINGS A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT BRINGS RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE BEHIND IT FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST. KALB AND KPSF ARE SEEING SOME GUSTY WINDS, UP TO
15-20 KTS, EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING.
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG FORMATION, PARTICULARLY AT KGFL AND KPSF,
WHICH COULD CAUSE BRIEF VIS AND CIG DROPS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPO
GROUPS AT THOSE TERMINALS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD. KGFL AND KALB WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SEE CIGS
BEGIN TO DROP DURING THAT PERIOD, THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...23
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