610
FXUS61 KALY 092320
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO REFLECT CURRENT FORECAST
TIMING AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE,
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A BREEZY AND COMFORTABLE SUMMER DAY TODAY, HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY
AT THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH HELPING
CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS IS
BETWEEN 1 PM AND MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
THE LATEST FORECAST SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION, INCLUDING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
TACONICS, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS, DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING, MOISTURE FROM THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT, AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FOR THOSE LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. TAKING A DEEPER DIVE INTO THE
ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY AND INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS PRESENT ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS.
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. WITH
LATEST FORECAST TRENDS ON THE ENVIRONMENT FOR TOMORROW FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS, THIS INCREASES FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS GOING TO BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ONE THING TO NOTE, THE GROUND
CONTINUES TO BE SATURATED ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS, SO STRONG WIND
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH MAY BE ALL IT TAKES TO UPROOT TREES AND
DAMAGE TREES. HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN ALSO OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY ABOVE THE SURFACE IS
HELPING CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AS THE SUN SETS TOMORROW EVENING, ENERGY AND
INSTABILITY DECREASES HELPING CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKEN THE
ENVIRONMENT NEEDED FOR STRONG STORMS SOUTH OF THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION. FOR LOCATIONS NORTHWARD, WE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAN
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO
PUSH EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS CURRENTLY
SUPPORTED TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST INTO CANADA, BUT BRINGS A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT BRINGS RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE BEHIND IT FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE FOR THE TAF SITES FOR THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEEN
DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS WELL. AS A RESULT, FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR FOR ALL SITES FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN LOWERING, A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS DAYBREAK,
BUT WON'T INCLUDE AT THE OTHER SITES DUE TO A LARGER T/TD
SPREAD. WITHIN MIST/FOG, IFR CONDITIONS FOR VISIBILITY CAN BE
EXPECTED. ANY FOG OR MIST WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
ON MONDAY, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR. SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 4-6 KFT FOR ALL SITES AND THERE WILL
BE SOME SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
START THE DAY CALM, THEY WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON THE TIMING IN THE LATEST CAMS, HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 21Z, WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND
IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM FOR LATE IN THE
DAY ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...27
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