982
FXUS61 KALY 110531
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN STILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO REFLECT CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS AS FOG IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN
TACONICS, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
2) OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN INTERESTING SETUP HAS OCCURRED FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE SANDWICHED IN-BETWEEN TWO
WEATHER SYSTEMS, ONE TO OUR SOUTH THAT IS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN NY AND ONE TO OUR NORTH DEVELOPING. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF
THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION, CLOUD COVERAGE HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD HAVE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH MOVES EASTWARD. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH, IT BRINGS
JUST ENOUGH ENERGY FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AFTER 8 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
FOR THE WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, THE SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-
HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS HAVE THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS AS A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL NY/THE BORDER OF PA. AS THE MAIN LINE IS
FORECASTED TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF AND NORTH OF THE LINE FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THESE
LOCATIONS WITH PRIMARY CONCERN BEING HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED HERE BASED ON LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION FORECAST TRENDS AND CURRENT ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS. THEY
HAVE HAD PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN TO OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS
TO RECEIVE WARNINGS IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
BY SUNSET, CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH LESS FAVORABLE AND THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DIMINISHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BASED ON LATEST ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES,
LOW TO MEDIUM (15-45%) CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY COULD RETURN TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. AS CHANCES ARE LOW TO MEDIUM AT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OR FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR THURSDAY AS
INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ARE NOT SUPPORTED BY
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCES. NEVERTHELESS, KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY AND A DREARY DAY IS
LIKELY IN STORE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WITH CLEARING SKIES, PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS BEGUN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, AS EVIDENCED ON LATEST NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED ON TRENDS, HAVE NOW
INCLUDED A LOW CIG TEMPO AT POU AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS HOW A 600
FOOT CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE, WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT
BOTH GFL AND PSF, AND HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FCST OF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE, A LIGHT
BREEZE AND LACK OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HELP PREVENT ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT ALB OVERNIGHT.
ONCE ANY FOG OR MIST DISSIPATES AROUND 12Z, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE DAY WITH NO PRECIP. FEW-SCT DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...27/32
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