263
FXUS61 KALY 110655
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
255 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO BRING SHWRS/STORMS TO
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. WHILE OUR
AREA SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DRY, CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER
OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AS COLD FRONT THAT'S CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH OUR
AREA STALLS SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
MEANWHILE, BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
AREA WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS IN RECENT DAYS, AND NBM
POPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A RESULT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, AND STRONG WIND
FIELDS ALOFT MAY BRING THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA.
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAY'S UPPER TROUGH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. BEHIND
THIS FRONT, 850-HPA TEMPS FALL TO 7 TO 8C, WHICH SHOULD YIELD
HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WITH CLEARING SKIES, PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS BEGUN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, AS EVIDENCED ON LATEST NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED ON TRENDS, HAVE NOW
INCLUDED A LOW CIG TEMPO AT POU AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS HOW A 600
FOOT CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE, WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT
BOTH GFL AND PSF, AND HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FCST OF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE, A LIGHT
BREEZE AND LACK OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HELP PREVENT ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT ALB OVERNIGHT.
ONCE ANY FOG OR MIST DISSIPATES AROUND 12Z, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE DAY WITH NO PRECIP. FEW-SCT DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...27/32
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