800
FXUS61 KALY 111018
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO BRING SHWRS/STORMS TO
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. WHILE OUR
AREA SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DRY, CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER
OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AS COLD FRONT THAT'S CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH OUR
AREA STALLS SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
MEANWHILE, BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
AREA WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS IN RECENT DAYS, AND NBM
POPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A RESULT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, AND STRONG WIND
FIELDS ALOFT MAY BRING THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA.
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAY'S UPPER TROUGH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. BEHIND
THIS FRONT, 850-HPA TEMPS FALL TO 7 TO 8C, WHICH SHOULD YIELD
HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. THIS HAS LIKELY LED
TO LESS FOG FORMATION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT,
FCST STARTS OUT WITH VFR AT ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PSF
WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS REMAIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10
KTS.
TONIGHT, FCST SOUNDINGS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS ON POSSIBLE
FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMATION AT BOTH GFL AND PSF. FOR NOW, HAVE
ELECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS UNTIL A
STRONGER MODEL SIGNAL BECOMES MORE APPARENT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
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