160
FXUS61 KALY 111738
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO BRING SHWRS/STORMS TO
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. WHILE OUR
AREA SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DRY, CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER
OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AS COLD FRONT THAT'S CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH OUR
AREA STALLS SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
MEANWHILE, BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
AREA WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS IN RECENT DAYS, AND NBM
POPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A RESULT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, AND STRONG WIND
FIELDS ALOFT MAY BRING THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA.
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAY'S UPPER TROUGH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. BEHIND
THIS FRONT, 850-HPA TEMPS FALL TO 7 TO 8C, WHICH SHOULD YIELD
HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WED...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND SOUTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON, AS VERY WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. HIGH CLOUDS WITH A FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR TOWARDS OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z/WED. A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN 07Z-10Z/WED AT KGFL AND WE USED A TEMPO GROUP THERE FOR IFR
VSBYS. ELSEWHERE, SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB TOWARDS KPOU AND KPSF, AS A DISTURBANCE
PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER EASTERN PA/NJ. THE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 12Z/WED...AND ANY RADIATIONAL MIST
SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AT KALB WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHEAST 8-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS 20-25 KT AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TOWARDS
00Z/WED AND WILL BE MAINLY CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
VARYING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 KT OR LESS LATE
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...15
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