970
FXUS61 KALY 111910
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
310 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ADJUSTED
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO REFLECT CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS
FOR LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON
THE TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR HOW THE WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
LOW TO MEDIUM (15-45%) CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY.
FOR THURSDAY, EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE AND DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, WE COULD SEE VERY LIMITED INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NEVERTHELESS, AN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ANY LOCATION THAT SEES SOME
CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. AS CHANCES ARE LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS FORECAST PERIOD,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS OF FLASH FLOODING
FOR THURSDAY AS INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR THESE IMPACTS ARE NOT
PRESENT IN FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES. NEVERTHELESS, KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY AND A
DREARY DAY IS LIKELY IN STORE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND THE
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BASED ON LATEST FORECAST TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCES, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MID-AUGUST RANGE IN THE LOW 80S(80-83
DEGREES) TO MID-70S IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. THE LATEST FORECAST
SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S FOR HIGH TERRAIN
LOCATIONS AND MID-70S FOR ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO RANGE 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
SUPPORTED TO BE OVERHEAD EASTERN NEW YORK AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD GET VERY CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON THE TREND FOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IF TEMPERATURES NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FOR SATURDAY
MORNING BELOW THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. LATEST PROBABILITIES
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS IS HIGH (GREATER
THAN 75 PERCENT) FOR BELOW 45 DEGREES. FOR THOSE PLANNING ON CAMPING
AND OUTDOOR RECREATION THIS WEEKEND FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, A
CHILLY SATURDAY MORNING CAN BE IN STORE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WED...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND SOUTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON, AS VERY WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. HIGH CLOUDS WITH A FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR TOWARDS OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z/WED. A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN 07Z-10Z/WED AT KGFL AND WE USED A TEMPO GROUP THERE FOR IFR
VSBYS. ELSEWHERE, SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB TOWARDS KPOU AND KPSF, AS A DISTURBANCE
PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER EASTERN PA/NJ. THE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 12Z/WED...AND ANY RADIATIONAL MIST
SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AT KALB WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHEAST 8-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS 20-25 KT AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TOWARDS
00Z/WED AND WILL BE MAINLY CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
VARYING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 KT OR LESS LATE
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15
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