831
FXUS61 KALY 120538
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ADJUSTED
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO REFLECT CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS
FOR LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON
THE TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR HOW THE WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
LOW TO MEDIUM (15-45%) CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY.
FOR THURSDAY, EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE AND DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, WE COULD SEE VERY LIMITED INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NEVERTHELESS, AN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ANY LOCATION THAT SEES SOME
CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. AS CHANCES ARE LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS FORECAST PERIOD,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS OF FLASH FLOODING
FOR THURSDAY AS INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR THESE IMPACTS ARE NOT
PRESENT IN FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES. NEVERTHELESS, KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY AND A
DREARY DAY IS LIKELY IN STORE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND THE
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BASED ON LATEST FORECAST TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCES, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MID-AUGUST RANGE IN THE LOW 80S(80-83
DEGREES) TO MID-70S IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. THE LATEST FORECAST
SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S FOR HIGH TERRAIN
LOCATIONS AND MID-70S FOR ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO RANGE 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
SUPPORTED TO BE OVERHEAD EASTERN NEW YORK AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD GET VERY CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON THE TREND FOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IF TEMPERATURES NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FOR SATURDAY
MORNING BELOW THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. LATEST PROBABILITIES
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS IS HIGH (GREATER
THAN 75 PERCENT) FOR BELOW 45 DEGREES. FOR THOSE PLANNING ON CAMPING
AND OUTDOOR RECREATION THIS WEEKEND FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, A
CHILLY SATURDAY MORNING CAN BE IN STORE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ALL OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST THAT
COULD DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH DAYBREAK. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY COULD
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME ONLY HAS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARRIVING NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AT KPOU AROUND 04-06Z. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AS FOR THE SHOWER'S ONSET TIMES SO MORE CONFIDENCE WILL
COME IN THE FOLLOWING TAF CYCLES. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KALB WHICH WILL
HAVE LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS
GRADUALLY PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 5-10 KT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
THE EVENING AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...53
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