305
FXUS61 KALY 120616
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED THAT A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO THE REGION. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SKIRTS
THE CANADIAN BORDER. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES FORM DURING THE DAY
TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE. MEANWHILE, BETTER
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING AS
MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND NBM
POPS HAVE INCREASED AS A RESULT. SPC DAY 1 DOES HAVE A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY,
WHERE EARLIER TIMING (I.E. AFTERNOON) OF THE INCOMING WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY IN AN AREA OF STRONGER
SHEAR ALOFT. DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR DROPS OFF FURTHER EAST AND GIVEN
THE LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NY/WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND, OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR AREA APPEARS LIMITED.
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BASED ON THIS MORNING'S HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 WITH HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VLY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG COLD FRONT, FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ANYWAY, IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM WESTERN ONTARIO AND
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. CLEARING SKIES COMBINED WITH
WEAK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COOL SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN, TO MIDDLE 50S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS SCENARIO AS LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW WIDESPREAD 80% PROBABILITIES OF LOWS COOLER THAN
55F ACROSS THE REGION. REGARDLESS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM
CONTROL ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY, SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
BANNER DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE AREA. ENJOY IT WHILE YOU CAN AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IMPACTS OUR REGION.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ALL OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST THAT
COULD DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH DAYBREAK. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY COULD
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME ONLY HAS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARRIVING NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AT KPOU AROUND 04-06Z. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AS FOR THE SHOWER'S ONSET TIMES SO MORE CONFIDENCE WILL
COME IN THE FOLLOWING TAF CYCLES. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KALB WHICH WILL
HAVE LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS
GRADUALLY PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 5-10 KT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
THE EVENING AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/05
AVIATION...53
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