837
FXUS61 KALY 121108
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
708 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED THAT A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO THE REGION. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SKIRTS
THE CANADIAN BORDER. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES FORM DURING THE DAY
TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE. MEANWHILE, BETTER
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING AS
MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND NBM
POPS HAVE INCREASED AS A RESULT. SPC DAY 1 DOES HAVE A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY,
WHERE EARLIER TIMING (I.E. AFTERNOON) OF THE INCOMING WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY IN AN AREA OF STRONGER
SHEAR ALOFT. DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR DROPS OFF FURTHER EAST AND GIVEN
THE LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NY/WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND, OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR AREA APPEARS LIMITED.
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BASED ON THIS MORNING'S HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 WITH HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VLY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG COLD FRONT, FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ANYWAY, IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM WESTERN ONTARIO AND
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. CLEARING SKIES COMBINED WITH
WEAK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COOL SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN, TO MIDDLE 50S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS SCENARIO AS LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW WIDESPREAD 80% PROBABILITIES OF LOWS COOLER THAN
55F ACROSS THE REGION. REGARDLESS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM
CONTROL ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY, SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
BANNER DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE AREA. ENJOY IT WHILE YOU CAN AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IMPACTS OUR REGION.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/THURSDAY...ANY PATCHY FOG/MIST SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH TODAY COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME ONLY HAS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KALB AND KPOU BETWEEN 04-09Z. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR WHERE STEADIER SHOWERS
DEVELOP. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LINGERING LOW STRATUS AFTER
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH POSSIBLY KEEPING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT KPOU.
FOG/MIST COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING LOWERING VISBYS TO MVFR/IFR AT KGFL, KPOU, AND KPSF.
WINDS GRADUALLY PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 5-10
KT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...53
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