684
FXUS61 KALY 121739
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
139 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED THAT A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO THE REGION. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1)CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SKIRTS
THE CANADIAN BORDER. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES FORM DURING THE DAY
TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE. MEANWHILE, BETTER
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING AS
MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND NBM
POPS HAVE INCREASED AS A RESULT. SPC DAY 1 DOES HAVE A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY,
WHERE EARLIER TIMING (I.E. AFTERNOON) OF THE INCOMING WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY IN AN AREA OF STRONGER
SHEAR ALOFT. DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR DROPS OFF FURTHER EAST AND GIVEN
THE LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NY/WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND, OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR AREA APPEARS LIMITED.
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BASED ON THIS MORNING'S HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 WITH HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG COLD FRONT, FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ANYWAY, IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM WESTERN ONTARIO AND
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. CLEARING SKIES COMBINED WITH
WEAK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COOL SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN, TO MIDDLE 50S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS SCENARIO AS LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW WIDESPREAD 80% PROBABILITIES OF LOWS COOLER THAN
55F ACROSS THE REGION. REGARDLESS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM
CONTROL ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY, SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
BANNER DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE AREA. ENJOY IT WHILE YOU CAN AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IMPACTS OUR REGION.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 13/03Z. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS UP
TO 10 KNOTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON TOO. AFTER 13/03Z, THERE ARE
LOW CHANCES FOR KGFL, KALB, AND KPSF ON SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH 7-9Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR KPOU ON TIMING FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT BETWEEN 3Z AND 5Z, THEN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 9Z. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TERMINALS AT THIS FORECAST PERIOD, SO ALL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE MENTIONED IN
PROB30 GROUPS. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 9Z
AND 12Z. THEN VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURN BETWEEN 11Z AND
13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/05
AVIATION...05
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