033
FXUS61 KALY 140521
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE MAJOR VALLEYS NORTH/NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT. ALSO ADDED PATCHY
RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG TO THE HUDSON, MOHAWK AND CT RIVER VALLEYS EAST
OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING.
EXPANDED ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON FRI. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE COOL MID-AUGUST AIR MASS BUILDING IN FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING
WITH NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CONTINUED THE TREND
TO COOLER TEMPS BELOW THE NBM VALUES BY 2-4 DEGREES AND CLOSER
TO THE MAVMOS NUMBERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
2) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION ON FRIDAY, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
3) COOLER TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND, AS CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. 500
HPA TEMPS ARE ABOUT -13C BASED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM KALY.
TEMPS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. MLCAPE VALUES BASED
ON THE 17-18Z SPC RAP ANALYSIS ARE IN 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. 500 HPA WINDS ARE AROUND 50
KT, SO THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS 50-60 KT, BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
DRY AIR ALOFT. ALSO, THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 6C/KM. WE ARE ALSO LOCATED ON THE UNFAVORABLE RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. UPDRAFTS MAY NOT
BECOME TALL ENOUGH FOR A ROBUST SEVERE THREAT, UNLESS A ROGUE
SEVERE CELL OCCURS TAPPING INTO MORE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, WITH
THE STRONG 700-500 HPA WINDS SOME GUSTY WINDS /35-50 MPH/ OR
SUB-SEVERE HAIL UNDER PENNY-SIZE COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN
VT. NEAR NORMAL PWATS AROUND AN INCH WITH FAST STEERING WINDS
ALOFT SHOULD REDUCE ANY HYDRO THREAT. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET WITH THE SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SFC HIGH RIDGING IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG MAY FORM
NORTH OF ALBANY IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, ALSO IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, NARROW VALLEYS IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED. SOME RESIDUAL
CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION FURTHER SOUTH. LOW TEMPS FALL
INTO THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
THE ADIRONDACK PARK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. THE DEEP SHEAR IN THE 0-6
KM CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AT 50-60 KT. THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL
ALOFT COUPLED WITH WEAK OR MODEST INSTABILITY WITH THE LATEST
HREFS SHOWING MEAN SBCAPES MAINLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. POPS WERE KEPT MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE RANGE. AGAIN, THE LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SEVERE THREAT AND THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE, AS WE AGREE WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FROM SPC.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS, AND
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS. RAIN OR GREATER, SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL QPF TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR WITH A
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. SOME
PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, AS WE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAVMOS VALUES.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW READINGS IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS FALL CLOSE TO 40F. AFTER A CHILLY START FOR MID-
AUGUST, TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S (SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING IN OVERHEAD.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE PLEASANT FOR MID-AUGUST.
LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, AS A LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE SAT NIGHT, AS IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
COOL AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOW AND MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE AND WARM FRONT FOR
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST. POPS WERE CONTINUED IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
RANGE (55-85%) FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. PWATS RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE LATEST NBM
INDICATES THAT THE 24-HR PROBABILITIES FOR >0.50" OF RAINFALL
ENDING 12Z/MON ARE IN 50-70% RANGE ACROSS EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHANCES FOR >1" OF RAINFALL FOR THE
24-HR PERIOD ENDING THAT SAME TIME FRAME ARE 25-40%. THE
RAINFALL CONTINUES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING, AS A SECONDARY
WAVE MAY FORM NEAR LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WPC
CONTINUES A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) IN THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL GRAPHIC, SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME HEAVIER
RAINFALL ELEMENTS THAT MAY CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/SAT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR ANY
FOG FORMATION. KPSF LOOKS TO BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY TAF SITE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE LIFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE ON
FOG IS LOWER AT KGFL DUE TO A CONTINUED NORTHWEST WIND AND STILL
LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THIS SITE, BUT WILL STILL ALLOW
FOR BRIEF IFR VSBYS BETWEEN 09-11Z/FRI SHOULD WINDS QUICKLY GO
CALM LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG AT
KALB/KPOU TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF UPDATE. ANY FOG LIFTS BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT
KALB/KGFL/KPSF AND A PROB30 WAS MAINTAINED FOR POSSIBLE
REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS IN ANY SHOWER. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF KPOU. SHOWERS DEPART BY AROUND 00Z/SAT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING, THOUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY SITE THAT SEES A
SHOWER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
5-10 KT ON FRIDAY (EXCEPT NORTHEASTERLY AT KGFL). WINDS TREND
LIGHT TO CALM AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...33
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