462
FXUS61 KALY 142322
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
722 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE: AS OF 7:20 PM EDT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS THEY OUTRUN THE INSTABILITY AND WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING AS THEY TRACK SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO, GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: PATCHY FOG WAS EXPANDED ACROSS EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS WITH SOME RECENT WET GROUND AND THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN. LOW TEMPS WERE
LOWERED CLOSER TO THE MAVMOS NUMBERS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 40S TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS BUILDING IN, AS THE NBM NUMBERS WERE TOO
HIGH IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS.
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING FOR HIGHER POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. WPC
MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION, BUT INCREASED
THE I-84 CORRIDOR NEAR SOUTHERN ULSTER, SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO A (LEVEL 2 OF 4) SLIGHT RISK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THEIR IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
2) COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER WEATHER BEGIN THE WEEKEND, BUT THEN THE
NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHEAST WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY 18Z. THE 500 HPA
TEMP ON THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING WAS -11C. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN WEAK AT LESS THAN 6C/KM. THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SPOTTY MID 60S CLOSER TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY IN THE NYS MESONET. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP IN
THE 8-9C/KM RANGE. THE LATEST SPC RAP MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES
MLCAPE MAINLY 250 J/KG OR LESS, AND WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE TO
250-500 J/KG. THE SBCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS.
SOME OF THE CAMS SHOW AN INCREASE TO 500-100 J/KG OF SBCAPE, BUT
BASED ON THE PRESENT DEWPOINTS INSTABILITY IS LIMITED. HOWEVER,
THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR CONTINUES TO 50-60 KT WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OF 50-66 KT CLOSE TO 500 HPA. SOME LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS,
BUT THE LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD INHIBIT UPDRAFTS FROM
GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. SPC PLACED
THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE 1-1.25" AND THE
STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT ANY HYDRO THREAT.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE SHORT-WAVE PASSAGE AND
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING. PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN
THE MAJOR VALLEYS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT WET GROUND IN
SPOTS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE RIDGE MOVING IN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST
QUEBEC FOR SATURDAY. AFTER MORNING RADIATIONAL FOG BURNS OFF,
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE FROM THE 40S AND MID 50S. LOW TEMP READINGS
AROUND 40F ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITONS AND DRY WEATHER DURING
THE DAY DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH. MAX
TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-AUGUST WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 60S
TO MID 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. IT WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE
AND THE DRY AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
40S TO 50S. THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TO NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COOL
MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AGAIN
WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY NEAR SOUTHEAST VT AND
ALSO THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA.
THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEGINS DRY, BUT HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
FALL WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL. THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT FOR
SHOWERS TO INCREASE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/I-87
CORRIDOR IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THEN
INCREASING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS (55-80%) BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING, AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES.
PWATS RISE ABOVE NORMAL AND THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL IN PLACE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUN PM INTO SUN NIGHT. THE LATEST 24-HR NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR >1" OF RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING 8
AM/MONDAY ARE 25-60%. THE 2" PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY UNDER
20% FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. A SECONDARY LOW OR WEAK WAVE MAY
FORM ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUING THE RAIN WELL INTO MONDAY
MORNING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ON THE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE WITH 0.50-1.00" OF RAINFALL WITH SOME 1-2" AMOUNTS
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS, EASTERN
CATSKILLS, AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WPC HAS
KEPT A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
FOR AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT, THOUGH THEY DID PLACE THE
SOUTHERN EXTREME OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 4) WHICH IS NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR, WHERE SOILS ARE
WETTER/MORE SATURATED RECENTLY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
EVENT, AS IT APPEARS PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING OR URBAN AREAS WOULD BE THE MAIN
ISSUES, UNLESS HIGH RAINFALL RATES ARE ACHIEVED. DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS,
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WED INTO THU.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AS OF 7:20 PM
EDT, ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR TO IFR VSBYS EXPECTED AT PSF THROUGH
AROUND 00Z AS A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKS THROUGH.
DUE TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING GIVING APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL TO GFL/ALB/PSF, HAVE MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS TO INTRODUCE FOG EARLIER THIS
EVENING (AS EARLY AS 1-2Z) WITH EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES AND CALM
WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, WILL MENTION THAT FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH LIFR TO VLIFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF TONIGHT THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY AT
GFL/PSF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FOG POTENTIAL AT POU WITH THIS AREA
HAVING MISSED MOST OF THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SOME
PATCHY MIST WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS IS STILL POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AND AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.
FOG MAY TAKE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TO FULLY DISSIPATE
TOMORROW MORNING, ESPECIALLY IF BECOMES DENSE. HOWEVER, ONCE FOG
MIXES OUT, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD FROM MID-MORNING ONWARDS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH JUST A FEW
PASSING MID OR HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
INCREASING TO AROUND 5 KT FROM THE N/NW (LOCALLY N/NE AT GFL)
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...35
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page