816
FXUS61 KALY 161747
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SOUTHERN SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
CONTINUES WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTING TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE, THERE IS NO LONGER A FLASH
FLOOD RISK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH THERE IS NO LONGER A RISK FOR FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY, BUT ANY STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
2) NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT;
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SUN THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY REACHING THE MID-70S TO LOWER
80S. LATEST TRENDS SHOW THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVES WILL BYPASS
THE REGION BOTH TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SOME
RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN HAS
DECREASED. MOST AREAS MAY RECEIVE LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THIS LATEST SHIFT, THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS REMOVED FROM THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH, THOUGH A LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. STILL, SOME GUSTY WINDS OR A
BRIEF DOWNPOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. IT
WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID-60S TO LOWER 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH
WILL BRING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE CURRENT
PROJECTED TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH THIS PASSING THROUGH MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. RIGHT NOW, THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY SHOULD ACTIVITY REACH THESE AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT A LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT STRONG
STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT
THE COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY CROSS THE AREA OR STALL NEAR THE
AREA ALLOWING ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO MID-80S DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-25 KTS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND MIST WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF CIG AND VIS DROPS TO
MVFR. AS RAIN SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY WIDESPREAD IFR DURING THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IFR CONDITIONS, WITH LOCALIZED DROPS TO LIFR CIGS, WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONGSIDE THE RAIN SHOWERS AND
MIST. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH MODERATE GUSTS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
AFTER 02Z. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK UP TO MVFR BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING AS SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASES, WITH PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING MVFR CIGS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...23
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