491
FXUS61 KALY 170601
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
201 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED A KEY MESSAGE FOR POTENTIAL UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT
WEEKEND, AS THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.
3) POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING,
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO
A WEAK CYCLONE OVER SE ONTARIO. A SECONDARY WEAK CYCLONE OVER
SE PA WILL BE ADVANCING NE INTO THE NYC VICINITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS MORNING. WHILE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH TODAY (PWAT ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +2 STDEV;
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70), OUR AREA WILL LIKELY ONLY
GET INTO A PSEUDO WARM SECTOR AS THE FRONT ADVANCES EAST AND
GETS SOMEWHAT OCCLUDED. SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. IF
A FEW BREAKS OF SUN OCCUR, THERE COULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED
T-STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S OCCLUDED FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LATEST CAMS SUPPORT THIS, WITH
SBCAPE POTENTIALLY REACHING 500-1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
T-STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND SUB-SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. SHOWERS/T- STORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING, WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY
HUMID TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUE THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS
A FEW T-STORMS, ARRIVES WED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND SE CANADA. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THIS FRONT
WEAKENING BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA, SO POPS ARE LIMITED
TO AREAS WELL NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY THROUGH WED. NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY FORECAST AT THIS TIME, SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. WITH A ZONAL W-SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SLOW SE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT, WITH AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
FROM AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING, THEN SOUTH OF ALBANY THU AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND AI GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP, WITH MOST OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH/WEST
OF OUR REGION BUT VERY CLOSE. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
POSITION/TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF THE REGION. SHOULD THE
LOW CLOSE OFF A BIT FARTHER SOUTH/WEST THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED,
THE PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEK, AS THIS IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED TO
IFR AT GFL/POU/PSF AND WITH LOW-END MVFR CIGS STILL AT ALB. WITH
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT,
EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS TO SEE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE TRENDING DOWN TO MAINLY IFR CIGS
FROM PRE-DAWN THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. MAINLY MVFR VSBYS
ALSO EXPECTED, WITH SOME MIST/SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AROUND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING.
SOME IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR CIGS AND MVFR TO VFR VSBYS
EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING (IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT GFL/PSF) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
SO HAVE CONTINUED PROB30 GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM PREVIOUS
TAF ISSUANCE. BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WILL STILL SEE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS AT
ALB/GFL/POU AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT PSF THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. S/SE WINDS AT 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KT AT
ALB/PSF EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE, WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE N/NE AT AROUND 5 KT AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LLWS THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ALB WHERE SFC WINDS WILL BE
LOCALLY STRONGER.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...35
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