136
FXUS61 KALY 180602
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY NOW, AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED
TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING ANY SHOWERS TO OUR REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY, AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
2) POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND DETAILS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS,
ARRIVES WED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SE CANADA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
REACHES OUR AREA, SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES FOR AREAS
WELL NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY. ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY (SBCAPE <
700 J/KG) CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST, SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A POSITION
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON THU, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THU.
THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ON FRI, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ACROSS OUR AREA PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE BY THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF OUR REGION
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE
PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THE POSSIBLE CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE
ECMWF/AI-EC/AI-GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED TO
OUR WEST INITIALLY THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST, WHILE THE
GFS IS INDICATING A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TOO DAMPENED WITH REGARDS TO THE CLOSED
LOW AT THIS TIME FRAME. SO BOTTOM LINE IS THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THERE IS AT LEAST ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY VALUES ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...FLYING CONDITIONS RANGE FROM
VFR AT ALB/POU TO IFR AT GFL/PSF AS OF 1:15 AM EDT. GFL HAS
ALREADY SEEN MORE CLEARING, WHICH ALLOWED FOG/MIST WITH LIFR
VSBYS TO FORM. FOG/MIST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HERE THROUGH AROUND
12Z. AT PSF, IFR CIGS WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH FOG/MIST POSSIBLE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK IF BREAKS IN THE LOW STRATUS DEVELOP. FOR ALB, LIGHT
BREEZE MAY HELP PREVENT FOG FORMATION DESPITE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, WITH MORE MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR STRATUS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. AT POU, MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, BUT WITH MORE BREAKS TOWARDS SUNRISE SOME PATCHY
FOG/MIST MAY FORM HERE IF WINDS REMAIN CALM.
FOG, MIST, AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY AROUND 12Z,
BUT SOME SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 1000-2000 FT MAY REMAIN THROUGH MID-
MORNING (AND POSSIBLY UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON AT PSF) BEFORE
CONTINUING TO LIFT TO AROUND 5000 FT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WHERE CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER FOR PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TOWARDS THE TAIL
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT GFL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS JUST YET.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT, INCREASING TO
AROUND 5 KT FROM THE N/NW THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5 KT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT,
EXCEPT AT ALB WHERE WEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...35
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