291
FXUS61 KALY 181016
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY NOW, AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED
TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING ANY SHOWERS TO OUR REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY, AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
2) POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND DETAILS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS,
ARRIVES WED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SE CANADA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
REACHES OUR AREA, SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES FOR AREAS
WELL NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY. ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY (SBCAPE <
700 J/KG) CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST, SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A POSITION
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON THU, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THU.
THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ON FRI, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ACROSS OUR AREA PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE BY THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF OUR REGION
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE
PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THE POSSIBLE CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE
ECMWF/AI-EC/AI-GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED TO
OUR WEST INITIALLY THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST, WHILE THE
GFS IS INDICATING A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TOO DAMPENED WITH REGARDS TO THE CLOSED
LOW AT THIS TIME FRAME. SO BOTTOM LINE IS THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THERE IS AT LEAST ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY VALUES ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...ALB/GFL/PSF HAVE ALL SEEN IFR OR LOWER
CIGS OR VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY FOG/MIST AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT POU REMAINS VFR AS OF 6:15 AM EDT. FOG/MIST/LOW
STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS INTO AN
MVFR STRATUS DECK BEFORE EVENTUALLY FURTHER BREAKING UP INTO
JUST SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING (LOCALLY UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON AT PSF). HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN JUST HOW LONG THE IFR STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING.
HAVE ADDRESSED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.
ONCE FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES, PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS, AND THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ALB/POU.
GFL/PSF LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
AFTER 06Z WITH IFR OR LOWER VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KT FROM
THE N/NE THROUGH THE MORNING, BACKING TO THE W/NW THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET,
EXCEPT AT ALB WHERE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...35
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