217
FXUS61 KALY 181712
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
112 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY NOW, AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED
TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING ANY SHOWERS TO OUR REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY, AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
2) POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND DETAILS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS,
ARRIVES WED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SE CANADA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
REACHES OUR AREA, SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES FOR AREAS
WELL NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY. ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY (SBCAPE <
700 J/KG) CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST, SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A POSITION
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON THU, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THU.
THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ON FRI, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ACROSS OUR AREA PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE BY THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF OUR REGION
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE
PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THE POSSIBLE CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE
ECMWF/AI-EC/AI-GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED TO
OUR WEST INITIALLY THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST, WHILE THE
GFS IS INDICATING A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TOO DAMPENED WITH REGARDS TO THE CLOSED
LOW AT THIS TIME FRAME. SO BOTTOM LINE IS THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THERE IS AT LEAST ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY VALUES ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, WITH VARIABLE
TO LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CONSISTENT MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO BURN OFF, WITH SOME LINGERING LOW-
TO-MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME CALM AFTER 00Z,
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS. GIVEN THE CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG AFTER
06Z. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT KGFL AND
KPSF, WHICH COULD SEE BRIEF DROPS TO IFR VIS, WHILE THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR KALB AND KPOU, REFLECTED BY TEMPO GROUPS
WITH BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR VIS. ANY MIST/FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...23
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