631
FXUS61 KALY 200534
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE
CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF ALBANY THROUGH THIS EVENING,
THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF ALBANY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND EXACT TRACK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: LATEST RADAR SCANS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ON TRACK WITH THE
FORECAST FROM THIS MORNING AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO CURRENT
FORECAST. READ BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AFTER A DRY START TO THE DAY WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND SE CANADA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONT
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA, SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER
CHANCES MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
GET CLOSE TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES IN, SO WILL MENTION 20% POPS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE < 700 J/KG FROM HREF, SO WILL
CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
THE DECAYING FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THU,
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE REMNANTS OF THE
BOUNDARY ONLY REACHING SE PA/NJ BEFORE STALLING WITH A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY AND TRACKING EAST
ALONG IT ON THU. CAMS ARE ESPECIALLY AGGRESSIVE INDICATING
SHOWERS FROM THIS WAVE MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA (E. CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY,
TACONICS, LITCHFIELD CT). GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE
THOUGH, BUT AI MODELS DO HAVE SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALBANY. NBM
POPS/QPF LOOK TOO LOW, SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
THESE AREAS BY THU P.M. AND USED WPC QPF, WHICH SHOWS AROUND
0.25-0.50" ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW, AS ANY APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AS A
RESULT OF MORE CLOUDS/SHOWERS AROUND, TEMPERATURES LOOK COOLER
(MAINLY 70S) AND MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER IF TRENDS HOLD.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU EVENING AS
THE WAVE TRACKS INTO SE NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THIS WEEKEND FROM
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, READ BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE BY
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THE WEEKEND IS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER FOCUS NOW.
SAT LOOKS LIKE THE DRIER DAY COMPARED TO SUN, ALTHOUGH WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A COASTAL WAVE
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SE NEW ENGLAND.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BASED
ON THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. SUN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WETTER DAY,
AS FORCING INCREASES DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. WITH THE MAIN SURFACE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO
TRACK NORTH INTO CANADA, THE SYSTEM'S OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD
PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR LIKELY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS (AND
PERHAPS SOME T-STORMS) TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS DECREASED, AS MOST DETERMINISTIC, AI AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAVE LOOSELY CONSOLIDATED INDICATING A CLOSED LOW
TRACKING NORTH/WEST OF OUR AREA. THERE IS STILL SPREAD IN THE
EXACT TRACK, BUT LATEST TRENDS AT LEAST INDICATE LOWERING
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. LATEST NBM SHOWING A 15-35% PROB
OF > 1.0" RAIN ENDING MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER ALB, GFL AND PSF
TONIGHT WHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER POU. DESPITE THE
CIRRUS, SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT GFL COMBINED WITH HUMID
CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN MVFR VIS FROM RADIATIONAL FOG. FOG LOOKS
TO THICKEN EARLY THIS MORNING AT GFL RESULTING IN PERIODS OF IFR VIS
AND POTENTIALLY EVEN CIGS BEFORE CLEARING OUT AROUND 12 UTC. ALSO
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VIS FROM RADIATIONAL FOG AT PSF FROM
08-12 UTC AS THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY FALLEN TO THE DEW POINT.
AGAIN, FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 12 UTC.
CIRRUS CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER BY 15 - 20 UTC TODAY ACROSS THE
TERMINALS AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH AN
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS. STEADIEST RAIN
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO POU AND PSF WHERE WE SHOW MVFR VIS FROM 20 TO
02 UTC WITH RAIN TURNING LIGHTER AT ALB AND MAINLY MISSING GFL. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOSER TO NJ/NYC BUT IF HEAVIER RAIN
CAN INCH FURTHER NORTH, CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS
AT POU DURING THIS WINDOW. RAIN EXITS TO OUR EAST BY 00 - 03 UTC
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07/05
AVIATION...31
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