005
FXUS61 KALY 201753
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY SAID
TO DRIVE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY TODAY HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH. THEREFORE, WE INCREASED THE
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SUBSEQUENTLY, WE MADE MODERATE INCREASES IN THE TOTAL RAINFALL
FORECAST, PARTICULARLY IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST
NEW ENGLAND. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS LIKEWISE
INTRODUCED A SMALL MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING IN SOUTHERN ULSTER, DUTCHESS, AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY, WILL LARGELY BRING BENEFICIAL RAIN TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN
LOCATIONS THAT SEE REPEATED, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST,
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY,
STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. TAKING A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED BY THE GUIDANCE,
THIS LOW WILL JOIN WITH THE STALLED FRONT AND A COUPLE OF
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES ALOFT TO FORCE A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WITHIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE MOST CONSISTENT AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL DEVELOP IN THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE FOCUSED. THE FARTHER NORTH, THE LIGHTER
AND MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME AS A NEARBY SURFACE HIGH
WILL PROVIDE COUNTERACTING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. BY LATE
TONIGHT (EARLY FRIDAY MORNING), RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO TOTAL
ABOUT 0.05" ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO AS MUCH AS
0.8" IN FAR SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. AND WHILE
THIS WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD
BECOME A CONCERN IN THESE AREAS SHOULD THE LOW AND AXIS OF
HEAVIES RAIN SHIFT EVEN FARTHER NORTH.
AFTER A DRY END TO THE WEEK ON FRIDAY, THE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO
THE EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF SUCH DUE TO MINOR
DISCONTINUITIES IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE OVERALL SET UP.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS WEEKEND WON'T BE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT. WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT
THIS POINT IS AN INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING DUE TO A SURFACE LOW PASSING BY THE LONG ISLAND AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINES. THEN, A SECOND, MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS COMES SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING CUTOFF LOW SINKS INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS CUTOFF LOW
OVERHEAD WOULD LEAD TO CONTINUOUS MOIST, CYCLONIC FLOW HEADING
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. ONCE
AGAIN, THIS RAIN WOULD MOSTLY BE BENEFICIAL. HOWEVER, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REPEAT IN SIMILAR LOCATIONS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH IN THIS ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST, HOWEVER, SO WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS MOVING FORWARD.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/FRIDAY...AS OF 1:45 PM, CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO THICKEN
AND LOWER ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AT KALB, KALB, AND KPOU BETWEEN ABOUT 18Z AND 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL REMAIN. STEADIER RAIN
LOOKS TO ARRIVE BETWEEN ABOUT 21Z AND 02Z AND MAINLY AT KPOU AND
KPSF WHERE FLIGHT CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF KGFL AND IF ANY DO REACH THE TERMINAL, THEY
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER
RAIN EXITS THE REGION BY 03Z OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG/MIST
THAT COULD DEVELOP LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR AT KGFL AND KPSF.
ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH DAYBREAK. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST 4-8 KT BECOMING LIGHT
AND/OR CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST BY MORNING WITH SPEEDS 5- 10 KT WITH A FEW
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...53
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