011
FXUS61 KALY 201900
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
300 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS FOR THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITH THE CONTINUED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS PA/MD TOWARDS NJ. A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) FROM WPC CONTINUES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OR
AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN ULSTER, DUTCHESS
AND LITCHFIELD TOWARDS I-84. QPF WAS USED FROM WPC FOR THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH A HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH BASIN AVERAGE EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
NW CT.
POPS WERE REDUCED TO SLIGHT CHANCE (15-20%) SATURDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST BEFORE CHANCES
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OR AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-84 IN SOUTHERN ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
2) ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE REPEATED, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES ESPECIALLY WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NJ THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE PA-MD
BORDER. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS
NORTHEAST PA INTO CENTRAL-EASTERN NY WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK OVER UPSTATE NY. THE BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FGEN IN
THE H850-700 LAYER IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. PWATS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 1.3-1.7"
RANGE FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TO THE I-84
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE RANGE AS FAR
NORTH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY, SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT. THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
55-80% RANGE CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID
HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS, SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES, WHERE THE BETTER FORCING OVERLAPS WITH THE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
WPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4)IN TH DAY 1 ERO FOR
THE LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF I-84 IN SOUTHERN ULSTER, DUTCHESS
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES FOR ISOLATED INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE GRIDDED 1-HR FFG REMAINS HIGH IN THESE AREAS IN THE
1.8-2.5" RANGE, AND THE 3-HR VALUES ARE GENERALLY 2.5-3". THE
LATEST HREFS SHOWS RATES OF 0.1-0.25"/HR INTO TONIGHT WITH
BRIEFLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50"/HR. THE HIGH FFG VALUES AND
THE RAINFALL RATES NOT TOO HIGH IS WHY WE HELD ISSUING A FLOOD
WATCH. SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND URBAN AREAS
MAY OCCUR. WE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY IN
THE HREF. WE ALSO USED THE WPC QPF WITH BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF
0.50-1.00" OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS,
SOUTHERN TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD, CT. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1-2"
MAY OCCUR IF ANY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCUR OR TRAINING.
EXPECT HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH
TO THE CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN VT AND A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WITH SOME PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE
50S WITH SOME 40 OVER THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH A MAINLY A
DRY DAY ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S, SO HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLE.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH A FEW
UPPER 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG IN FRI NIGHT FROM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION/OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SAT MORNING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING
TROUGH. CLOUDS INCREASE WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WE LOWERED POPS TO
THE 15-20% RANGE FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST SATURDAY UNTIL THE
NEXT SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ENSEMBLES AND SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS
SOME SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. WPC CONTINUES A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) IN THE DAY 3 ERO FOR SOUTHEAST
DUTCHESS, LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. IF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES
AND WITH WETTER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THEN AN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SAT WITH MID 60 TO LOWER 70S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID AND UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS.
THE BROAD, MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS FROM A NEUTRAL
TILT TO NEGATIVE TILT OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH THE CLOSED
H500 LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A SFC
TROUGH OR OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. POPS CONTINUES CONTINUE IN THE 70 TO
95% RANGE. THE NBM 24-HR PROBS FOR >0.50" OF RAINFALL BY
00Z/MON ARE IN THE 30-50% RANGE ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHEST PROBS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHWEST DACKS. THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE MAINLY BENEFICIAL, AS
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION NOTED. TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND AND OPEN NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY MON INTO TUE WITH
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND UPSLOPE/INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SEASONAL TEMPS FOR LATE AUG.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/FRIDAY...AS OF 1:45 PM, CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO THICKEN
AND LOWER ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AT KALB, KALB, AND KPOU BETWEEN ABOUT 18Z AND 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL REMAIN. STEADIER RAIN
LOOKS TO ARRIVE BETWEEN ABOUT 21Z AND 02Z AND MAINLY AT KPOU AND
KPSF WHERE FLIGHT CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF KGFL AND IF ANY DO REACH THE TERMINAL, THEY
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER
RAIN EXITS THE REGION BY 03Z OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG/MIST
THAT COULD DEVELOP LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR AT KGFL AND KPSF.
ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH DAYBREAK. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST 4-8 KT BECOMING LIGHT
AND/OR CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST BY MORNING WITH SPEEDS 5- 10 KT WITH A FEW
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...53
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