938
FXUS61 KALY 211047
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR
SATURDAY, SO POPS WERE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY,
DUE TO THIS, AND THE EXPECTATION FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WPC HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO NOTABLE
CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING BENEFICIAL RAIN TO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY, FORCING THE RETURN
OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY, TOO, NOW
LOOKS TO BE DRIER, THOUGH THERE REMAIN LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO
A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH AND A SURFACE LOW TRACKING
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. BASED ON
THE DRIER TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, WE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THESE AREAS.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WILL NOT BE AS PLEASANT. A DEEPENING, NEGATIVELY-TILTING TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY AS AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GREAT LAKES. A CONTINUOUS
DEEPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO ITS CLOSING OFF WHILE
THE CYCLONE AT THE SURFACE SIMULTANEOUSLY DEEPENS AND TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC/LONG ISLAND COASTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WEAKENING INTO
AN OPEN WAVE PULSING ABOUT THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
UPPER- LEVEL FORCING FROM THESE FEATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, WILL CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR CYCLES THROUGH THE LOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW
MAINTAINS LIGHT RAIN SOLELY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
MOIST, CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY OVERHEAD.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY,
THOUGH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. THE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS TO OUR NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, FORCING THE RETURN OF DRIER CONDITIONS.
DUE TO THE NORTHERN-STREAM NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE'S A
GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE CONTENT TO DRIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
OF COURSE, IF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SHOULD FORM ON SUNDAY, THERE
COULD BE SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION RATES
WITH ANY SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, DUE TO THE CYCLING OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE SYSTEM,
NONE OF THESE DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WASHOUTS. THEREFORE, ANY
AND ALL RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL AND WILL NOT DRIVE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR
AROUND 12 UTC WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
RANGE 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 12-15KTS THROUGH 18
UTC TODAY TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...31
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