154
FXUS61 KALY 212314
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY FOR
SUNDAY (DAY 3). HAVE ALSO LOWERED FORECAST MAX TEMPS FROM NBM
SUNDAY DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE AND SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER A MAINLY DRY SATURDAY, AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
2) COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH SHOWER CHANCES PERSISTING ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR
AND NORTH OF I-90.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS,
SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BECOME, AS SOME HIGHER-RES CAMS SUGGEST A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A SWATCH OF LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY. WILL NEED
TO WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS TO SEE IF THESE MORE
EXTREME CAMS ARE BEING INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROCESSES OR NOT. 12Z/21 HREFS INDICATING 6-HOUR PROBS FOR
>1"/RAINFALL ENDING 8 AM SUNDAY AT 20-30%, AND 10-20% FOR >2"
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, MAINLY REFLECTING THE HIGHER QPF CAMS.
AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN MID MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THIS FRONT, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY
(CAPES 500-1000 J/KG) TO BUILD AMID 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT
FOR SOME STRONGER LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
INSTABILITY IS GREATEST FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ASSUMING A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL FORCING LOOKS STRONGER ACROSS THE
SW ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION. SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK HAS PLACED AREAS MAINLY SOUTH/EAST OF I-88 IN THE
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AS WELL AS SEVERE HAIL GIVEN
THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND COOLING MID LEVELS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UPPER LEVEL LOW/COLD POOL ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH/NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST. IN ADDITION, AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PIVOT AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW, FORCING AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITHIN ANY TALLER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS/CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST
FEW-SCT LINGERING CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SOME THIN CIRRUS AS WELL.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DISSIPATING. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT, THE COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT AND THEY WILL
REMAIN RATHER THIN. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT AND MAY SITES WILL
BECOME CALM FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. SOME RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR KGFL AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KALB AND KPSF, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER AT KGFL AT THIS TIME. WITHIN ANY FOG, IFR VISIBILITY MAY
OCCUR, BUT ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK.
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR
ALL SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. BASED OFF THE LATEST CAMS, IT
SHOULD STAY RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT CEILINGS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. IT STILL SHOULD STAY VFR, BUT BKN
CIGS AROUND 4-6 KFT ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FOR ALL SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5-10
KTS FOR ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/24
AVIATION...27
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