116
FXUS61 KALY 230607
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
207 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REFINED TIMING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. FIRST,
MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE LOOKS LESS
LATER IN THE DAY. THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ON SUNDAY.
2) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
3) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER OUR REGION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND, AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND FAR SE CANADA. INITIALLY, OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE
DOWNSTREAM/DIFFLUENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT TRACKING NE SUN MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ALONG
WITH PWAT ANOMALIES BRIEFLY INCREASING TO +1 TO +2 STDEV, COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH
THE OCCLUDED FRONT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF
SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY, FIRST WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/LINES IN
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. THEN, THERE LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER PERIOD FOR
MORE CELLULAR STORM MODE IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH DE-STABILIZATION
(SB CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 35-40
KT IN WAKE OF THE FRONT (FROM REFS). BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ALONG WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS, WITH
BOTH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS. COVERAGE OF SHOWER/T-STORMS SHOULD BE LESS COMPARED TO
THE MORNING THOUGH.
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY
EVENING, AS INSTABILITY WANES AND A SMALL LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER
BY MON AND WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG (500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OF -2 TO -3 STDEV). A POTENT SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CENTER, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW T-STORMS, ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, WHERE THERE WILL
BE UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH A COLD CORE ALOFT MOVING
OVERHEAD WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING. WHILE THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS DUE TO
STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC ON TUE, WITH THE SYSTEM'S UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING, ALTHOUGH LOWER COVERAGE COMPARED TO MON (MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED). SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FAVORED ACROSS
WESTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY, WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH AT TIMES IN
FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ON WED, CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE THU/FRI TIME
FRAME, AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
POTENTIAL MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE PASSAGES SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS, WITH T-STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE RETURN. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE IS LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS OF SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM BACK TO
NORMAL MID-LATE NEXT WEEK TOO.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING OCCLUDED BOUNDARY. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY STEADY, THOUGH
SCATTERED BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS TO VFR HEIGHTS. OR, IN THE CASE OF PSF,
BREAKS COULD RESULT IN IMPROVEMENTS FROM IFR TO MVFR. REGARDLESS, BY
ABOUT 10-13Z, ALL SITES WILL CONSISTENTLY SPORT IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW-LEVEL STRATUS BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT AND SHOWERS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL RATES IN THIS INITIAL
ROUND OF RAIN WILL BE LIGHT, SO VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 4-6SM. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THEN COMES LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THE EXACT TIMING OR LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS, PROB30S WERE
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS TO HIGHLIGHT THE PERIOD OF GREATEST POTENTIAL.
GENERALLY, THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LIES BETWEEN 20-
01Z. ONCE THESE CONCLUDE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY DEPARTS
NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF CYCLE, IMPROVEMENTS TO THE VFR CATEGORY
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BEGIN OUR OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS UNDER 10KT. BY THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 10KT OR SO BEFORE THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS WINDS TO THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL THEN FALL BACK UNDER 10 KT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...12
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