575
FXUS61 KALY 231340
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
940 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS TO DECREASE
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY LOOKS MOST NUMEROUS NORTH OF I-90, WITH MORE SCATTERED
COVERAGE FROM AROUND I-90 SOUTH. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
2) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90.
3) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK
AS TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR PARENT TROUGH CENTERED JUST
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE BASE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AN AREA OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH PA EARLY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WITHIN A REGION OF DIFFLUENT FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, HIGH RES AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS THEY ADVANCE NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH
SUNRISE AS THEY OUTRUN THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT. WHILE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT BEFORE
SUNRISE, THE WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD
REACH EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 09 - 15 UTC THIS
MORNING. THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY ESSENTIALLY STALLS OVER EASTERN
NY TODAY WITH THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
CONTINUING TO ROTATE INTO THE NORTHEAST, REACHING EASTERN NY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE, EXPECTING
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO REDEVELOP AND TRACK FROM
WEST TO EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES ALSO
SHOW DRY AIR SURGES INTO EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS THIS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. THIS WILL HELP
STEEPEN MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6C/KM WITH DCAPE VALUES ALSO
RISING OVER 1000 J/KG. THE INCOMING DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO HELP
MORNING STRATUS BREAK FOR SUN WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S SUPPORTING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY INCREASING TOWARDS
1000 - 1500 J/KG PER THE REFS AND CAMS. GIVEN THE INCOMING
CLOSED LOW, 0-6KM SHEAR IMPRESSIVELY REACHES 40-50KTS AND 0-3KM
SHEAR 25-30KTS.
DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER, CLOUDS
LOOK TO BREAK FOR SUN JUST AS THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE,
LIMITING THE TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE
CONVECTIVE INITIATES. IN ADDITION, LOW-LEVEL FORCING IS LIMITED
TO A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG A WASHOUT
OCCLUDED FRONT. THESE HELP EXPLAIN WHY THE HREF AND REFS BOTH
ONLY SHOW LOW PROBABILITIES FOR UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES
EXCEEDING 20M/S MAINLY 20 - 00 UTC. THIS INDICATES THAT EVEN AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM CLUSTERS INITIATE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THERE SHOULD ONLY BE
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN WEAK UPDRAFT
GROWTH, THERE ARE ALSO QUESTIONS IF ANY STORMS CAN TAP INTO THE
STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT. THIS MATCHES WITH SPC'S MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) IN THEIR DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. DAMAGING WINDS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT FORM BUT
ANY STORM CAN ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO THE FAVORED -10C TO -30C
REGION LIKELY DUE TO THE COOL/DRY AIR TRACKING IN ALOFT. STORMS
CAN ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN PWATS OVER 1". CONVECTION
DISSIPATES BY 0 - 02 UTC WITH CLOUDS CLEARING QUICKLY THEREAFTER,
SUPPORTING RADIATIONAL FOG OVERNIGHT WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OUR MATURE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY PROPAGATES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
MONDAY WITH ITS COOL POOL EXTENDING INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH THE 500HPA -15C TO -18C
COOL POOL ALOFT SUPPORTING STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6 -
6.5C/KM WITH MORNING SUN CONTRIBUTING TO SB-CAPE VALUES REACHING
500 - 1000 J/KG. AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE
BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED AREA
OF RAIN AND EVEN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING WEST TO EAST.
GIVEN THE COOL POOL, STORMS WILL NOT NEED TO BECOME TOO TALL
BEFORE LIGHTNING DEVELOPS WITH ANY TALLER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS LOW EL HEIGHTS
INDICATING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION AND THUS LIMITING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY BY MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION OVER THE STILL WARM LAKES
SUPPORTING A LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE RAIN RESPONSE. THEREFORE,
WE CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW AND THE TROUGH AXIS/COOL POOL UNDER OUR
VERY SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY FAVORED NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-90. THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL LIKELY
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. INSTABILITY WANES BY
TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING
PLEASANT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE DRY BREAK DOES NOT
LAST LONG AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL
ALLOW HUMIDITY LEVELS TO RISE ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND EVENTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SUPPORT
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWER/STORMS AS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON THE STRENGTHEN OF
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND PLACEMENT OF THE PARENT TROUGH IN
SOUTHERN CANADA.
AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS AN INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS BEGINS TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. BRIEF LOWERING TO IFR CONDITIONS COULD
RESULT WITH THESE SHOWERS MAINLY AT KPSF, THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON'T ALLUDE ANYTHING PAST A LOWER MVFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITY AT OTHER SITES. TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN
ADDED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO ACCOMMODATE THESE
ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS.
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION COMES IN A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR, LATEST GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED PROB30 GROUPS. THEREFORE,
MAINTAINED THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 21-01Z. ALB MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FROM 16-19Z,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST.
ADDITIONALLY, WE MAINTAINED LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED PROB30S TO CONVEY
UNCERTAINTY NOT JUST IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION, BUT LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN OBTAINING IFR CONDITIONS.
ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONCLUDE THIS EVENING, A SWIFT
RETURN TO VFR WILL OCCUR WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENTS TO VISIBILITY
AND CEILING HEIGHT. BY LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR, LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION AT ALL
SITES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO START THE PERIOD THIS MORNING, WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS BELOW 10 KT. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON
TO AROUND 10 KT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL THEN BE LIGHT TO CALM.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...12
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