720
FXUS61 KALY 231735
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
2) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
3) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATER THIS WEEK,
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER OUR REGION WILL DEEPEN TODAY, WITH A
CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR GEORGIAN BAY. OCCLUDED FRONT STEADILY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS
PROVIDING SOME FORCING, ALONG WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING.
THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY. CAMS AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATING
STORM MODE TO BE MAINLY CELLS/CLUSTER, WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINES
DEVELOPING AS SHEAR INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE HAVE ALLOWED FOR DESTABILIZATION. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE
INDICATING SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
30-35 KT. ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS,
WITH MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN INSTANCE OF LARGE
HAIL IF STORMS CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, AS INSTABILITY
WANES AND A SMALL-SCALE LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE CORE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW (500 MB
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF -2 TO -3 STDEV) WILL GRADUALLY TRACK EAST
NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER ON MON. A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW CORE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS MON
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MOST NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, WHERE THERE WILL BE UPSLOPE/LAKE-EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT WITH A COLD CORE ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD AND W-SW
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER A VERY WARM LAKE ONTARIO (SURFACE
TEMPERATURES +20C TO 22C). DUE TO ANTICIPATED LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY < 700 J/KG, THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORM IS LOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS DUE TO
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE COLD CORE ALOFT.
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
ON TUE, AS THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING,
ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE LOWER COVERAGE COMPARED TO MON EXCEPT
OVER THE W. ADIRONDACKS WHERE LAKE-EFFECT/UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
WILL PERSIST. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY, WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
20-25 MPH AT TIMES IN FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TRANQUIL WEATHER RETURNS ON WED, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
REGION. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN ON THU, AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES AND SURFACE FRONTS MAKE TIMING DETAILS
DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO MENTION LIKELY SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOPING THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE MAY END UP BEING A THREAT FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY/SHEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO BE IN
PLACE ON FRI, SO THERE WILL BE CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH AS THU IF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS WED-FRI AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CIG HEIGHTS HAVE RISEN TO MAINLY VFR
LEVELS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY 20Z, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HOWEVER SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP, WITH A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY/CIGS AND POSSIBLY EVEN
BRIEF IFR. WILL MENTION PROB30 FOR MVFR DUE TO ANTICIPATED
SCATTERED COVERAGE. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT ENOUGH FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL/KPSF. LOWER CONFIDENCE AT
KALB/KPOU, SO WILL MENTION MVFR POSSIBLE THERE. ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 12Z MONDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT, ALTHOUGH
STRONGER GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY TSRA. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 5 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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