384
FXUS61 KALY 240616
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT, BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
GRADUALLY TRACK OVERHEAD BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT COOL, CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GENERATE A
LAKE AND UPSLOPE RESPONSE SUCH THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TUESDAY. MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS, BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DRIFT INTO OR DEVELOP IN THE UPPER-
HUDSON, CAPITAL, TACONIC, BERKSHIRE, AND EASTERN CATSKILL
REGIONS. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT ROTATE ABOUT THE BASES OF THE DEPARTING
CYCLONES. GENERALLY, RAINFALL FROM THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE LIGHT AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY; WEAK SHEAR; AND WEAKENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH PEAK
HEATING HOURS, ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AND HAVE
LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH. THEREFORE, THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
FLASH FLOODING OR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY,
YIELDING A RETURN TO REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE
TRANQUILITY WILL NOT BE LONG LASTING AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
BUT THIS TIME WELL TO OUR NORTH SUCH THAT A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GRADUALLY MOVES EAST INTO OUR
AREA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THEN LOOKS TO SEND A SERIES OF
BOUNDARIES THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH FRIDAY, YIELDING POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH REGARDING THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GIVEN INEXACT TIMING AND EVOLUTIONARY
DETAILS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PROJECTION OF WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND A POTENTIALLY EARLY ONSET OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY MORNING,
IT'S SAFE TO SAY AT THIS POINT THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
THURSDAY IS LOW. FRIDAY COULD BE THE BETTER DAY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL GIVEN INCREASED FORCING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE
WEAK SHEAR PORTRAYED IN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. BUT, SHOULD THIS
INCREASE, INCREASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALSO
PORTRAYED IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE COULD GIVE FRIDAY A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS GOING FORWARD.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER, HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR RADIATIONAL
FOG AT KPSF AND KGFL. THROUGH DAYBREAK, THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES WITH VISIBILITY FREQUENTLY IN THE 1/4SM
TO 1SM RANGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR MIST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
KPOU AND KALB FOR A FEW HOURS JUST PRIOR TO AND AROUND SUNRISE,
BUT A LARGER T/TD SPREAD SHOULD HELP FROM FOG BEING AS DENSE AS
THE OTHER SITES.
ANY MORNING FOG/MIST SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z, ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR ALL SITES. IT LOOKS TO BE VFR THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY, WITH SCT CIGS AROUND 5-8 KFT BECOMING BKN TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS IN THE
MORNING WILL BECOME 5-10 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A PASSING BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER FOR MONDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, OTHERWISE, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 4-6 KFT AND LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...27
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