188
FXUS61 KALY 242324
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW WHILE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATE
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE
OF A COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO
TOMORROW. WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
AS WELL BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF THIS LOOKS RATHER SPARSE. WEAK
SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ANY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT AS WELL SO NO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND
70S WHICH ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH RETURNS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING
OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WHETHER OR NOT
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK
TO BE BETWEEN 6.0 TO 6.5C/KM WITH AROUND 25-30 KT OF SHEAR WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT THESE CONDITIONS ARE
BORDERLINE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO RISE INTO THE MID-60S TO LOWER 70S LATER IN THE WEEK AS
WELL. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRIER TO START WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
PLENTY OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT, HOWEVER LOWERING TO BORDERLINE MVFR LEVELS IS EXPECTED
TOWARDS 12Z. CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE BACK TO VFR LEVELS BY
16Z-17Z TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME PERIODS OF
FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 08Z-11Z, IF THERE ARE ANY
PERSISTENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COINCIDING WITH CALM WIND. WILL
MENTION TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 3-5 KT TONIGHT, BECOMING WESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 5-7
KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...07
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