901
FXUS61 KALY 250545
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS TODAY.
ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY VALLEY AREAS. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS THAT SEE RAINFALL TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BUT NO SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING
IS EXPECTED.
2) WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NEARBY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE A THREAT AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN
QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING THE TROUGH AXIS TO PASS ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT, SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS, WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS WELL. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE REGION. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH FOR LATE IN THE DAY AS THE BEST FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD.
3KM HRRR SUGGEST THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SBCAPE (AROUND 500
J/KG), SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHIN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED GROWTH
AND WEAK SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY STORMS FROM GETTING ORGANIZED OR
VERY STRONG. WITH RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE, NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AS WELL.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
COMFORTABLE TODAY WITH VALLEY HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S, SO IT WON'T FEEL TOO HUMID.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS CLOSE TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ALONG
WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN AHEAD
OF THE PASSING FRONT FOR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. PWAT VALUES
WILL BE INCREASING, WITH VALLEY AREAS SEEING MAX VALUES IN THE
1.50" TO 1.75" RANGE (ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 00Z GFS). THIS IS
ABOUT 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR SOME STORMS, ALTHOUGH THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME
OF THE AI/ML GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LOW-END THREAT FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA AS WELL, SO WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BEHIND THE STORM'S COLD FRONT FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. KGFL AND KPSF
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR VIS AND CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH KPSF EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS PAST 12Z WHILE
KGFL RETURNS TO VFR AFTER THAT TIME. CIGS WILL TREND LOWER AT
ALL OTHER TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH SOME SCT MVFR CIGS,
OTHERWISE REMAINING VFR THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
SOUTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, REFLECTED BY PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL
TERMINALS, BUT CIGS AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR SHOULD THESE
SHOWERS DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER
OUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH ALL TERMINALS REMAINING
PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAYTIME
TODAY, BEFORE WEAKENING BACK TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...23
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