970
FXUS61 KALY 251738
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY PRESENT, THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NO SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED.
2) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA BY
THIS EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND MOIST,
CYCLONIC FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
AND THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY HAS PREVENTED ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING
THUS FAR. WHILE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT, OVERALL
COVERAGE LOOKS VERY SPARSE SO THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAIN COULD OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE TALLER SHOWERS, BUT
THESE WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS. AS THE TROUGH
DEPARTS AND SHOWERS END TONIGHT, PARTIAL CLEARING WILL LIKELY
ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG TO FORM, SOME OF WHICH CAN BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN A COUPLE OF ROUNDS
WITH ONE EARLIER IN THE DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST WITH ANOTHER ROUND
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ALONG THE WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS, MODERATE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG WITH AROUND 30
KT OF SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF WIND DAMAGE. MOST OF THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES COULD SUPPORT SOME BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AS WELL. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEPARTS ON FRIDAY, SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE AS
ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT ON FRIDAY IS LOWER COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR
(ALB/GFL/POU) WITH MVFR CIGS AT PSF AS OF 1:10PM EDT. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW-
END VFR CIGS, ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR VSBYS/CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET. HAVE HANDLED
THIS WITH PROB30 GROUPS, AS ANY SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE BRIEF. TONIGHT, CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WITH PATCHY
FOG/MIST DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT GFL/PSF, BUT
FOG/MIST CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT POU/ALB FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND
SUNRISE. IF FOG/MIST FORMS, IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT GFL. ANY FOG/MIST SHOULD
LIFT BY 12-13Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 KT
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT AT ALB. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AT GFL/POU, BUT REMAIN AROUND 5 KT FROM
THE WEST AT ALB/PSF THROUGH 6-8Z TONIGHT BEFORE ALSO BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THEN EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...35
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