139
FXUS61 KALY 252315
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
715 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY PRESENT, THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NO SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED.
2) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA BY
THIS EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND MOIST,
CYCLONIC FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
AND THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY HAS PREVENTED ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING
THUS FAR. WHILE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT, OVERALL
COVERAGE LOOKS VERY SPARSE SO THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAIN COULD OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE TALLER SHOWERS, BUT
THESE WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS. AS THE TROUGH
DEPARTS AND SHOWERS END TONIGHT, PARTIAL CLEARING WILL LIKELY
ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG TO FORM, SOME OF WHICH CAN BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN A COUPLE OF ROUNDS
WITH ONE EARLIER IN THE DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST WITH ANOTHER ROUND
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ALONG THE WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS, MODERATE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG WITH AROUND 30
KT OF SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF WIND DAMAGE. MOST OF THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES COULD SUPPORT SOME BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AS WELL. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEPARTS ON FRIDAY, SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE AS
ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT ON FRIDAY IS LOWER COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WELL.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE TO
START THE PERIOD, WILL GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT BY LATER THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW -SHRA
MAY GET CLOSE TO KGFL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO WILL MENTION
VCSH THERE. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT, COUPLED WITH WEAKENING
WINDS, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KPSF. LIFR/VLIFR POSSIBLE AT KGFL AFTER 06Z AS WELL.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FOG AT KALB/KPOU, SO WILL MENTION MVFR VSBY
THERE. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE WESTERLY AROUND 3-8 KT,
BECOMING NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...07
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