617
FXUS61 KALY 260520
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY PRESENT, THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NO SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED.
2) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA BY
THIS EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND MOIST,
CYCLONIC FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
AND THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY HAS PREVENTED ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING
THUS FAR. WHILE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT, OVERALL
COVERAGE LOOKS VERY SPARSE SO THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAIN COULD OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE TALLER SHOWERS, BUT
THESE WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS. AS THE TROUGH
DEPARTS AND SHOWERS END TONIGHT, PARTIAL CLEARING WILL LIKELY
ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG TO FORM, SOME OF WHICH CAN BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN A COUPLE OF ROUNDS
WITH ONE EARLIER IN THE DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST WITH ANOTHER ROUND
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ALONG THE WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS, MODERATE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG WITH AROUND 30
KT OF SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF WIND DAMAGE. MOST OF THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES COULD SUPPORT SOME BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AS WELL. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEPARTS ON FRIDAY, SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE AS
ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT ON FRIDAY IS LOWER COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WELL.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES START OFF THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY CAUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIST/FOG
AT KGFL, BRINGING VIS AND CIGS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR, WITH THE SAME
EXPECTED AT KPSF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MIST/FOG AT KALB AND KPOU, SO KEEPING THAT WITHIN TEMPO GROUPS
THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR. ANY MIST/FOG WILL BURN
OFF AFTER DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
AND LIGHT WINDS REMAINING AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME
LINGERING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...23
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