639
FXUS61 KALY 260602
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCREASED FOR THURSDAY. SPC NOW HAS A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
2) ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. WITH A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE, IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS, WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY, INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. 00Z HRRR SHOWS
SBCAPE VALUES WILL REACH 1000-2000 J/KG AND THE 00Z SPC HREF
ALSO SHOWS MEAN VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG IN VALLEY AREAS AS
WELL. WITH THE DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH, THERE SHOULD
BE SOME SHEAR IN PLACE AS WELL, WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING
30 KTS.
ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START OUT DRY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
IN PLACE, SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE, WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH HELICITY FOR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO, BUT DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS LOOKS TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. CAMS SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY ORGANIZE
INTO SHORT LINES OR BOW ECHOES, ESPECIALLY BY THE EVENING HOURS.
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE-EVENING, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING REDUCES THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR PARTS OF THE AREA (MOHAWK
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS), WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, THANKS TO THE HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE
(PWATS REACHING 1.50 TO 2.00", WHICH IS ABOUT 1-2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL). THIS ALLOW FOR HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL RATES WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM. URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE MOST AS
RISK, AS WELL AS LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS LOOKS LOWER ON FRIDAY DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR, AND THE FRONT PASSING EARLIER IN THE DAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WHEN DEWPOINTS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN
BOTH DAYS WITH NO THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S, WITH EVEN
SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES START OFF THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY CAUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIST/FOG
AT KGFL, BRINGING VIS AND CIGS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR, WITH THE SAME
EXPECTED AT KPSF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MIST/FOG AT KALB AND KPOU, SO KEEPING THAT WITHIN TEMPO GROUPS
THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR. ANY MIST/FOG WILL BURN
OFF AFTER DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
AND LIGHT WINDS REMAINING AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME
LINGERING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...23
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