321
FXUS61 KALY 262323
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR THU-THU NIGHT WAS MOVED
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) REMAINS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME CHANGES TO THE POPS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TIMING WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SOME
COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
2) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS DRIER, LESS
HUMID AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT. OUTSIDE SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR LAKE GEORGE AND
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS,
AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO THE 3-KM NAM AND SOME OF THE OTHER CAMS.
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, WHERE
SPC HAS LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5), AND THE REST OF THE REGION IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5). A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE
GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN THE WARM SECTOR, AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND WEST. THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO CLOSE TO 70F. THE LATEST
HREFS SUPPORT MEAN SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1750 J/KG RANGE
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS WITH 0-6 KM MEAN SHEAR VALUES OF
25-35 KT. MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY FORM
INTO BROKEN LINES OR CLUSTERS. DCAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG
BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MAINLY 6C/KM OR LOWER. SOME
STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OCCUR. BOWING SEGMENTS,
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS OR WET MICROBURSTS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT. SOME CLOUDS IN THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM MAY
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT EARLY ON. A CLEAR SLOT MAY DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL NY INTO LOCATIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN THE
MID-PM, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION FOR A
SEVERE THREAT TO OCCUR (3-6 PM TIME FRAME). SOME CAMS CONTINUE
TO VARY ON THE TIMING OF CONVECTION EVOLUTION AND COVERAGE. THE
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING UNTIL 7-10 PM BEFORE WEAKENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE, WITH ANY TALLER UPDRAFTS AND DUE TO THE VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES, WHICH MAYBE BACKED SLIGHTLY IN HEIGHT
IN THE VALLEY AREAS, AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE HREFS SHOWS MODEST MEAN FIXED LAYER SIGTOR PARAMETERS OF
BARELY GREATER THAN 1 OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
PWATS INCREASE TO 1 TO 2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MUGGY AIR MASS. THE PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25-1.75"
RANGE WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES CLOSE TO THE I-84
CORRIDOR. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS. GRIDDED HOURLY FFG VALUES ARE 1.6-2.25" WHERE THE WPC
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ABOUT
25 KT. IF ANY CONVECTION TRAINS OR BACK BUILDS WITH
HIGH/INTENSE FLASH FLOOD RATES, THEN AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4). THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WITH
THE HIGHER FFG VALUES WERE REASONS WE DID NOT ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING. PONDING OF WATER OR POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SHORTLY BEFORE OR
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/WEST-CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. LIMITED INSTABILITY/SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT AND THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT BEING EARLY IN THE DAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS, AND MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS, AS THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL BE IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DRIER, COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIR MASS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY
MORNING AND WE STAYED CLOSE TO THE NBM VALUES. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL SAT WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F FOR HIGHS AND WILL
EDGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUN AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE MON INTO TUE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD EARLY
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WITH JUST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD
THERE COULD BE SOME OCCASIONAL FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL STARTING
AROUND 03Z OR 04Z AND LASTING UNTIL AROUND 08Z WHEN THICKER MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN. LATER THURSDAY MORNING, THERE MAY BE SOME
SHRA DEVELOPING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, SO WILL MENTION PROB30 AT
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. THEN, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD AT
ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING
AND PLACEMENT, SO WILL MENTION PROB30 FOR NOW. DETAILS CAN BE
REFINED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES. ANY +TSRA COULD PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS, DOWNPOURS, AND IFR VSBY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
AROUND 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO 10-13 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53/15
AVIATION...07
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