209
FXUS61 KALY 270536
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR THU-THU NIGHT WAS MOVED
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) REMAINS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME CHANGES TO THE POPS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TIMING WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SOME
COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
2) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS DRIER, LESS
HUMID AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT. OUTSIDE SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR LAKE GEORGE AND
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS,
AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO THE 3-KM NAM AND SOME OF THE OTHER CAMS.
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, WHERE
SPC HAS LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5), AND THE REST OF THE REGION IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5). A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE
GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN THE WARM SECTOR, AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND WEST. THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO CLOSE TO 70F. THE LATEST
HREFS SUPPORT MEAN SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1750 J/KG RANGE
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS WITH 0-6 KM MEAN SHEAR VALUES OF
25-35 KT. MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY FORM
INTO BROKEN LINES OR CLUSTERS. DCAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG
BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MAINLY 6C/KM OR LOWER. SOME
STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OCCUR. BOWING SEGMENTS,
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS OR WET MICROBURSTS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT. SOME CLOUDS IN THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM MAY
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT EARLY ON. A CLEAR SLOT MAY DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL NY INTO LOCATIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN THE
MID-PM, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION FOR A
SEVERE THREAT TO OCCUR (3-6 PM TIME FRAME). SOME CAMS CONTINUE
TO VARY ON THE TIMING OF CONVECTION EVOLUTION AND COVERAGE. THE
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING UNTIL 7-10 PM BEFORE WEAKENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE, WITH ANY TALLER UPDRAFTS AND DUE TO THE VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES, WHICH MAYBE BACKED SLIGHTLY IN HEIGHT
IN THE VALLEY AREAS, AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE HREFS SHOWS MODEST MEAN FIXED LAYER SIGTOR PARAMETERS OF
BARELY GREATER THAN 1 OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
PWATS INCREASE TO 1 TO 2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MUGGY AIR MASS. THE PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25-1.75"
RANGE WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES CLOSE TO THE I-84
CORRIDOR. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS. GRIDDED HOURLY FFG VALUES ARE 1.6-2.25" WHERE THE WPC
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ABOUT
25 KT. IF ANY CONVECTION TRAINS OR BACK BUILDS WITH
HIGH/INTENSE FLASH FLOOD RATES, THEN AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4). THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WITH
THE HIGHER FFG VALUES WERE REASONS WE DID NOT ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING. PONDING OF WATER OR POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SHORTLY BEFORE OR
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/WEST-CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. LIMITED INSTABILITY/SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT AND THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT BEING EARLY IN THE DAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS, AND MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS, AS THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL BE IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DRIER, COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIR MASS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY
MORNING AND WE STAYED CLOSE TO THE NBM VALUES. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL SAT WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F FOR HIGHS AND WILL
EDGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUN AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE MON INTO TUE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR KGFL,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF IFR VIS/CIGS DUE TO MIST
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN AT ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING
AND BECOMING GUSTY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH COULD YIELD BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY AT KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, REFLECTED BY PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 18-19Z
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM COULD BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH STRONG AND VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN
TOWARDS SUNSET, LEAVING BEHIND WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KPOU AND KPSF THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ063>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53/15
AVIATION...23
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