021
FXUS61 KALY 280132
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #631 HAS EXPIRED ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
STILL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT FOR DUTCHESS AND
ULSTER COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
COULD BE SEVERE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
2) THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF
URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ULSTER AND DUTCHESS
COUNTIES.
3) A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS, BUT NO ADDITIONAL
SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. SEASONABLE AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...A FEW SHORT LINES OF CONVECTION ARE STILL
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
MUCH LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST REMAINING
STORMS ARE NOW ENTERING SCHOHARIE COUNTY AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS, BUT THIS THREAT
SHOULD BE LOWERING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS INSTABILITY
WANES DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
HAVING BEEN WORKED OVER FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH THE FORCING SHIFTING AWAY, ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND HUMID AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE, SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE PRODUCED HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY OVER ULSTER COUNTY, WHERE LOCALIZED TOTALS
MAY HAVE EXCEEDED TWO INCHES. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THERE REMAINS A
LOCALIZED THREAT FOR SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN THESE AREAS, BUT THE THREAT OVERALL WILL BE LOWERING AS
STORMS WEAKEN AND START TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE STORM'S MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING ON FRIDAY. A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY,
MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LOWER THAN THURSDAY. THERE WON'T BE AS MUCH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR, SO STORMS WON'T BE ABLE TO BECOME SEVERE AND PROBABLY
WON'T BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
OVER THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, WITH
VALUES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
AND WARMER ON SUNDAY, BUT IT LOOKS TO STAY DRY WITH A PARTLY
SUNNY SKY AND HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/SATURDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL START
THE TAF PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES. TIMING IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THROUGH 2Z WHEN
ACTIVITY DECREASES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUES. FOG/MIST
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS, WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING KGFL AND KPSF TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME THAT ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS OVER THE
TERMINALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE BUT THE
POSSIBILITY IS MENTIONED IN A PROB30 FOR KGFL, KALB, AND KPOU.
ANY FOG AND SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNRISE, HOWEVER PESKY
LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS ALL SITES, WITH KPSF LIKELY REMAINING MVFR THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TONIGHT WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND/OR CALM BEFORE INCREASING AFTER
SUNRISE WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT KGFL, KPOU,
AND KPSF AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ063>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/05
AVIATION...53/05
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