948
FXUS61 KALY 280541
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
141 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #631 HAS EXPIRED ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
STILL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT FOR DUTCHESS AND
ULSTER COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
COULD BE SEVERE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
2) THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF
URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ULSTER AND DUTCHESS
COUNTIES.
3) A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS, BUT NO ADDITIONAL
SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. SEASONABLE AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...A FEW SHORT LINES OF CONVECTION ARE STILL
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
MUCH LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST REMAINING
STORMS ARE NOW ENTERING SCHOHARIE COUNTY AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS, BUT THIS THREAT
SHOULD BE LOWERING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS INSTABILITY
WANES DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
HAVING BEEN WORKED OVER FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH THE FORCING SHIFTING AWAY, ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND HUMID AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE, SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE PRODUCED HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY OVER ULSTER COUNTY, WHERE LOCALIZED TOTALS
MAY HAVE EXCEEDED TWO INCHES. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THERE REMAINS A
LOCALIZED THREAT FOR SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN THESE AREAS, BUT THE THREAT OVERALL WILL BE LOWERING AS
STORMS WEAKEN AND START TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE STORM'S MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING ON FRIDAY. A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY,
MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LOWER THAN THURSDAY. THERE WON'T BE AS MUCH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR, SO STORMS WON'T BE ABLE TO BECOME SEVERE AND PROBABLY
WON'T BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
OVER THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, WITH
VALUES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
AND WARMER ON SUNDAY, BUT IT LOOKS TO STAY DRY WITH A PARTLY
SUNNY SKY AND HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS START
OFF THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS AND WILL DETERIORATE
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MIST/FOG AND LOW STRATUS
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION. PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KGFL AND KPSF. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AROUND 12Z, ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR STRATUS CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE MID-MORNING AT KGFL, KALB, AND KPSF BEFORE
CIGS BEGIN TO LIFT.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AND LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST,
SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING UP TO 5-10 KTS. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH WINDS
SLIGHTLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/05
AVIATION...23
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