495
FXUS61 KALY 290517
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SOME DAYS NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
2) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ON SOME DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONT,
THROUGH A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TO SOME AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND
AND EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES
NEXT WEEK. WE LOOK TO BE LOCATED WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS RIDGE. AS A RESULT, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRACK UP AND OVER THE RIDGE NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL
OPEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ONE IF NOT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (MCS'S) TO TRACK OVER OUR AREA.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG WITH 30+ KT OF
SHEAR COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SUCH FEATURES REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHICH LEADS TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MOST FAVORED DAYS. PARTS OF OUR AREA ARE
OUTLOOKED IN A RARE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY PER THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER, BUT AGAIN, THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT COULD CHANGE IN
FUTURE OUTLOOKS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS EACH NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AT KGFL,
WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF DROPS IN VIS AND CIGS TO IFR, REFLECTED
BY A TEMPO GROUP. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL, SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING IN THE
AFTERNOON, BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...23
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