366
FXUS61 KALY 301729
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SLIGHTLY
LOWERED MAX TEMPS FROM THE NBM VALUES. ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NW CT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MON NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
ESPECIALLY TUE THROUGH WED.
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUE-TUE
NIGHT IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN TACONICS, NW CT AND THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASING CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
SHOWERS AND A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
2) SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE MID WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE AND/OR WEDNESDAY DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARBY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION, AS A WEAK WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER. THE WEAK FORCING AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND WE MAINTAINED THE 20-40% POPS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST, AND KEPT 30-50% POPS SOUTH
AND EAST. SOME OF THE CAMS SUCH AS THE 3-KM NAM HAVE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY TODAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS MEAN SBCAPES MAINLY
LESS THAN 500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS 35-40 KT BUT THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
UPDRAFT HEIGHT AND STRENGTH, AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
WEAK. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEVERE. WE CONFINED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT HUDSON IN COLUMBIA
COUNTY SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS I-84. MAX TEMPS TODAY WERE
LOWERED ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES BELOW THE NBM VALUES DUE TO THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO ABOUT 80F IN
THE MAJOR VALLEYS, AND MID 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE TERRAIN.
A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS END EARLY. SOME PATCHY FOG
ESPECIALLY IN THE MAJOR VALLEYS AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AND
WERE SLIGHTLY EXPANDED IN THE FORECAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A
1022 HPA OR SO SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC. BY
THE AFTERNOON, THE STALLED COLD FRONT OVER NY-PA MAY STARTS TO
LIFT BACK AS A WARM FRONT AND INTERACT WITH A MID-LEVE SHORT-
WAVE. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
IN THE MID TO LATE PM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80F WITH A FEW COOLER READINGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION, AS THE
UPSTREAM RIDGING CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST,
GREAT LAKES REGION AND ONTARIO WITH THE CLOSED ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST MON NIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING. A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION MON
NIGHT FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS/RAIN TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT, SO WE PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. AN MCS/DECAYING MCS MAY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE RAINFALL MAY BECOME BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90, AS PWATS RISE ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 1 TO 2 STDEV RANGE BASED ON THE NAEFS. WPC HAS THE ENTIRE
REGION IN MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) IN ERO PRIOR TO 12Z/TUE.
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD HYDRO
THREAT, THOUGH SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN A FEW SPOTS. LOWS WILL BE MILDER
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
TUE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGING AND
UNCERTAIN STRETCH OF THE FORECAST, AS A FEW SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES TRACK AROUND THE RIM OF UPSTREAM RIDGE AND IMPACT
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED, THE
TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL BE SOME OF THE KEYS FOR THE ROBUST
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. THE WARM FRONT AND A WEAKENING/DECAYING
MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
IMPULSE/SHORT-WAVE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE BASED ON THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE/AI/ENSEMBLES. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO CLOSE TO 70F NEAR POU, AS MAX TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SPC DID
INCLUDE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) IN THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
TUE NIGHT INTO WED, THE GUIDANCE VARIES WHEN A STRONG SHORT-
WAVE COULD BRING AN MCS WITH STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE T-STORMS
TO PARTS OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE LATEST GFS WOULD
LEAN TOWARDS TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN OF A
FEW INCHES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90, WHILE THE EC
AND EC AI AND SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES MORE IN THE WED-WED NIGHT
TIME FRAME. WPC CONDITIONS ERO'S D3 AND D4 (TUE-WED NIGHT) IN
THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING/HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE DUE TO TRAINING/BACK BUILDING
STORMS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 50 KT
AND SOME MODERATE/HIGH INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE A MORE ROBUST
SEVERE THREAT TOWARDS WED. SPC'S OLD DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK GRAPHIC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT 15-29% PROBABILITIES (SLIGHT RISK) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ALBANY WED-
WED NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE NEW DAY 4 OUTLOOK HAS THE 15-29% PROBS
SOUTHWEST OF THE ALY FORECAST AREA NOW. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THU WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A PRE- FRONTAL SFC TROUGH IMPACTING THE
REGION. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF T-STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A TREND TO COOLER, DRIER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TODAY AND THIS EVENING, WITH BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW -SHRA TO THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z, SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PROB30. THERE IS THEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AND SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR IFR ARE AT
KGFL/KPSF, WITH MVFR FAVORED AT KALB WHERE STRATUS CLOUDS COULD
PREVAIL. STRATUS CLOUDS AT VFR LEVELS EXPECTED AT KPOU. OVERALL,
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND
12Z-13Z, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-8 KT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...07
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