559
FXUS61 KALY 011044
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY FOR WED-WED NIGHT.
COOLER MAX TEMPS WERE CONTINUED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES NORTH AND EAST TODAY AND WED. ALSO THE GREATER THREAT
FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING WITH THE STRONG SHORT-WAVE AND THE OCCLUDED
FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRING SHOWERS
AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
2) A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH AN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR THE REGION.
3) ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
(WED-WED NIGHT) AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, WESTERN NY
AND AND W-CENTRAL PA. THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION AND ONTARIO. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTH AND EAST IN THE
MID TO LATE MORNING WILL FOCUS SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. MEAN MUCAPE VALUES ON THE LATEST HREF ARE
GENERALLY UNDER 300 J/KG WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES INDICATIVE OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TODAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OR WEAKENING MCS ON SOME OF THE CAMS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WHICH WILL ENHANCED THE LIFT AND PCPN. PWATS WILL BE
IN THE 1.50-2.0" RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH ARE 1-2.5" STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO HREFS.
BASED ON SEVERAL OF THE CAMS, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL FALL FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY, GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND
THE BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BASED ON THE
LATEST HREF COULD BRIEFLY BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH/HR. THE RAINFALL SHOULD
DIMINISH BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY EVENING WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WHICH MAY FOCUS A SEVERE THREAT FOR
THE LATER AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD (WPC DAY 1 ERO
LEVEL 1 OF 4) THREAT EXISTS WITH ANY ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES,
THOUGH GRIDDED 1-HR/3-HR FFG VALUES REMAIN HIGH. AT THE VERY
LEAST, PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS/LOW-LYING AREAS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS AND ACTUALLY RETREATS BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THAT SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE FOCUS WILL BE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING SYSTEM AND THE FRONT. THE LATEST
HREFS STILL SHOW MEAN SBCAPES OF 750-1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM DEEP
SHEAR 40-45 KT ALONG THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BORDER OF THE WFO ALY
FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON
VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NW CT. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR MOST THIS REGION WITH A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES CLOSE TO I-84. A
GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY EXISTS AND OVERLAPS WITH SHEAR WITH A
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE CAMS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH AN ISOLATED SUPER CELL
THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS.
HOWEVER, WITH A BOUNDARY AND SOME BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH
ENHANCED 0-1 KM HELICITY/SHEAR AND POTENTIAL LOW LCL HEIGHTS,
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY OR CLOSE TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. IF IT REMAINS CLOUDY, THEN
SEVERE/STRONG THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS PM
AND INTO TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN COOL FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR
NORTH AND EAST WITH THE EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WE
BLENDED WITH MAV MOS WITH THE NBM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THESE AREAS WITH SOME MID 70S TO AROUND 80F
SOUTHWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MUCH OF TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WITH PATCHY FOG DUE TO THE
1025 HPA OR SFC HIGH KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE AND
AN OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WED PM. THE TIMING
FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATE
PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ON SOME OF THE CAMS, AN MCS FORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO
LATE PM AND RACES TOWARDS THE WESTERN DACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK.
MUCAPES RISE TO 1000-1500 J/KG WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WITH MLCAPES IN 750 J/KG OR LESS. THE DEEP SHEAR REMAINS 40-50
KT. SPC INTRODUCED IN THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR LOCATIONS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF ALBANY.
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREATS. THE LIMITED INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT STILL EXISTS WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING, PWATS REMAIN 1 TO 2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1.5-2.0"
RANGE ON THE VARIOUS CAMS. THE STRONGLY FORCED WAVE COULD
PRODUCE SOME TRAINING/BACK BUILDING CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FROM
THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES 1" OR MORE AN HOUR COULD OCCUR. WPC
MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR SCATTERED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) SOUTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS. A MARGINAL RISK CONTINUES SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SOUTH AND EAST FOR
AFTER 12Z THU (WPC DAY 3 ERO). WE HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE
RAINFALL IS HEAVIEST TODAY AND EVALUATE WHERE SOILS MAY BE MORE
SATURATED. A SHORT-FUSE FLOOD WATCH FOR POTENTIAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED FLASH FLOOD INSTANCES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT PROJECTED TO
FLOOD, BUT POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS, SMALL CREEK
AND STREAM FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE ANY TRAINING OCCURS.
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON
THU WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD. LATEST NBM 24-HR
PROBABILITIES >1" RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING 8 PM THU ARE
50-80% AND >2" FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME ARE 20-45% ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE IN THE W-CENTRAL
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL RAINFALL
FROM THE MCS/OCCLUDED FRONT COULD RANGE FROM 1-2" OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA WITH SOME LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3"
A COOLER, DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH
SEASONABLE/SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
NEXT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POSSIBLY ON LABOR DAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
FOR ALL TAF SITES AT THE START OF THIS TAF PERIOD. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO PASSING
RAIN SHOWERS LOWERING VISIBILITY AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TODAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE
LOW FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TAF SITES,
SO CONTINUED MENTION IN PROB30 GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 22Z AT KALB,
KGFL, AND KPOU AND 18Z TO 02/00Z FOR KPSF. WINDS CONTINUE RANGE
BETWEEN CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
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