868
FXUS61 KALY 021757
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE - 10:55 AM EDT...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO MENTION THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL NY. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK E/SE ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR
REGION PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS, AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
WEAKENING TRENDS ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THAT SAID, SOME
BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS MAY SCRAPE THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY OR
WESTERN CATSKILLS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY FOR HYDRO ISSUES LOOKS LOW GIVEN EXPECTED
WEAKENING TREND, BUT WILL BE INCREASING POPS IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BIGGER THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
WITH ANOTHER MCS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS OUR REGION.
OTHERWISE, PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS...
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND EASTERN CATSKILLS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
2) ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WHILE THE MORNING HOURS BEGIN DRY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES
THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
HAS NOT CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY'S DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) WHICH NOW BECAME DAY 1 THAT
INCLUDES THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS. LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT COULD HAPPEN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE ARE TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
THAT CAN HAPPEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS, WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY, AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THEY ARE BOTH HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHAT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL DO WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SCENARIO NUMBER ONE: THE FRONT STALLS WAY TO OUR WEST AND NO
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP. THIS PREVENTS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR
ARRIVING WITH ENOUGH TIME FOR SURFACE HEATING TO OCCUR. WHILE
ONLY ONE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS, DEPENDING ON
HOW THIS MORNING'S ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS EXIST THIS SCENARIO
SHOWS THERE COULD BE LACKING ALL NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP (SIMILARLY TO WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY)
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN DACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS.
SCENARIO NUMBER TWO: THE FRONT DOES NOT STALL AND WE SEE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS, WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY, AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS WARM AIR
ARRIVING TO THESE LOCATIONS FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THESE LOCATIONS BASED ON THE OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS IS AFTER
NOON AND THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOW EXACTLY THE
STORMS WILL BE IS STILL THE TRICKY PART TO TODAY'S FORECAST AS A
FEW COULD DEVELOP INTO A LINE OF STORMS, WHILE THE REST REMAIN
ISOLATED IN NATURE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS SCENARIO NUMBER TWO, BUT WE CAN'T
IGNORE SCENARIO NUMBER 1 FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
HOW THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD PLAY OUT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE LOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON
THE DISAGREEMENTS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS AND CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT. WHILE THEY CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT FOR HOW TO
ENVIRONMENT WILL PLAY OUT WITH THE WARM FRONT AND IF WE HAVE ENOUGH
INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE, IF A SEVERE STORM
DOES DEVELOP THEN THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS GOING TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR
TODAY'S ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SECOND CONCERN TODAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TODAY, EVEN WITH
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN AS THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES
SUPPORT THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 1 INCH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE GREATER THAN 75
PERCENT FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE GROUND IS
SATURATED FROM YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL. AND IF ANY LOCATION SEES
REPEATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR. ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
THAT HAVE TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS. SMALL
STREAM/CREEKS COULD RISE.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING HAVE LOW CHANCES OF OCCURRING THIS EVENING, BUT
THE RISK IS THERE AS REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW WILL GREATLY DEPEND
ON WHO SEES THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND WHERE REPEATED RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR THE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES ARE IN STORE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 18 UTC/02, WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS CONTINUE WITH AN AREA OF
SHOWERS TRACKING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH ALB AND POU. THESE
SHOWERS LOOK TO REACH PSF SHORTLY AFTER 18 UTC WITH A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS NEAR GFL. A THUNDERSTORM IS JUST SOUTH OF POU SO
INCLUDED VCTS FOR THIS SITE ONLY THROUGH 21 UTC. SHOWERS
DIMINISH BY 20 - 21 UTC FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A BRIEF FOR DRY
WEATHER THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH CIGS AT GFL AND ALB EVEN
TRENDING UPWARDS BACK TO VFR FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL NY EASTWARD
REACHING ALB/GFL FIRST FOLLOWED BY PSF/POU NEXT BETWEEN 03 - 06
UTC. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED, THERE IS ENOUGH
EVIDENCE THAT RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN CAN OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR A BRIEF WINDOW SO
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FROM 03 - 08 UTC TONIGHT THAT RESULT IN
IFR CIGS AND VIS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND ANY STORMS SHOULD END BY
07-08 UTC WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY 09 - 11 UTC. CIGS AT GFL/PSF LOOK TO DROP IFR
DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE ALB/POU CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO MVFR. IFR
CIGS AT PSF/GFL SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS
SHORTLY AFTER THE TAF PERIOD ENDS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-12KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20KTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING SHIFT TO THE WEST - NORTHWEST AS THE AREA OF RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD SUSTAINED 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35/05
AVIATION...31
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