155
FXUS61 KALY 030702
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
302 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND, WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS EXPECTED.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH
NO FLOODING CONCERNS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE SPORADIC THIS MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS A WEATHER SYSTEM IS
MOVING THROUGH. THE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED FOR LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES THROUGH 6 TO 9 AM THIS
MORNING. THEN, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH THE MID-
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT,
BERKSHIRES, TACONICS, AND EASTERN CATSKILLS AS MOISTURE IS
STILL PRESENT AT THESE LOCATIONS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE. THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS THE
NATURE OF SHOWERS IS LIGHT. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 30
PERCENT) FOR A NON- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM THIS EVENING. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST FORECAST IS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ONCE
THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING, DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL TOMORROW. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS POTENTIAL DUE TO HOW LONG THE CLOUDS
STICK AROUND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOR TOMORROW, THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. AS RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND SPORADIC
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS. THE ONLY
LOCATIONS THAT WILL LIKELY NOT SEE A RAIN SHOWER TOMORROW IS IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION, AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TOMORROW FOR THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO BE FOR LOCATIONS FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT, BERKSHIRES, AND SOUTHWARD. THE
CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS TIMING OF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE
IN THE MID- MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THEN, DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE OUR NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES TO MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR ONE MORE DAY OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, THERE ARE MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%)
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND THE BERKSHIRES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY. THERE
ARE LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, SCHOHARIE VALLEY, GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT, AND LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGIONS. WITH THE NATURE OF
THE RAIN SHOWERS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
AND WILL BE EXITING SHORTLY. THERE HAD BEEN SOME THUNDER EARLIER
NEAR KPOU, BUT NO THUNDER REMAINS ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE
RAINFALL IS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO WON'T INCLUDE ANY
THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. RAIN HAS BASICALLY ENDED FOR
KALB/KGFL, BUT THE STEADIEST SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR TWO FOR KPSF AND KPOU. FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN MVFR, WITH SOME IFR OCCURRING DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, MOST SITES WILL SEE CONTINUED PERIODS OF
LOWER CEILINGS, WITH IFR CONDITIONS AROUND 800-1000 FT THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z-14Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW ADDITIONAL PASSING SHOWERS
AROUND FOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE DONE BY 08Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A VCSH
THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR MOST SITES, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS MORE
ISOLATED ONCE THE CURRENT RAINFALL EXITS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5-10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
AFTERWARD, THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
BKN CEILINGS RISING TO AROUND 1500-2500 FT. ALL SITES WILL SEE A
A RETURN TO VFR CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ALTHOUGH IT
WILL TAKE THE LONGEST FOR KPSF. CEILINGS WILL BECOME SCT-BKN
AROUND 3500-4000 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AT ALL SITES AROUND 5-10 KTS.
ON THURSDAY EVENING, MOST SITES WILL SEE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES TO
START THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THE MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY KGFL AND KPSF, WHERE FOG
WILL FORM AS EARLY AS 04Z-06Z. WITHIN MIST/FOG, IFR VISIBILITY
CAN BE EXPECTED. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT FOR
THIS TO FORM FOR KALB/KPOU.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT TO LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...27
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