040
FXUS61 KALY 031804
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
204 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND, WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS EXPECTED.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH
NO FLOODING CONCERNS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE SPORADIC THIS MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS A WEATHER SYSTEM IS
MOVING THROUGH. THE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED FOR LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES THROUGH 6 TO 9 AM THIS
MORNING. THEN, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH THE MID-
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT,
BERKSHIRES, TACONICS, AND EASTERN CATSKILLS AS MOISTURE IS
STILL PRESENT AT THESE LOCATIONS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE. THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS THE
NATURE OF SHOWERS IS LIGHT. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 30
PERCENT) FOR A NON- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM THIS EVENING. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST FORECAST IS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ONCE
THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING, DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL TOMORROW. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS POTENTIAL DUE TO HOW LONG THE CLOUDS
STICK AROUND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOR TOMORROW, THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. AS RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND SPORADIC
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS. THE ONLY
LOCATIONS THAT WILL LIKELY NOT SEE A RAIN SHOWER TOMORROW IS IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION, AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TOMORROW FOR THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO BE FOR LOCATIONS FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT, BERKSHIRES, AND SOUTHWARD. THE
CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS TIMING OF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE
IN THE MID- MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THEN, DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE OUR NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES TO MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR ONE MORE DAY OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, THERE ARE MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%)
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND THE BERKSHIRES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY. THERE
ARE LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, SCHOHARIE VALLEY, GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT, AND LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGIONS. WITH THE NATURE OF
THE RAIN SHOWERS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 18 UTC/03, A BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH WHICH HAS ALLOWED PSF, ALB, AND GFL CIGS TO START
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH POU ALREADY BACK TO VFR. INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP TO SHOW TO A TREND BACK TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 18 UTC. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT AS SKIES
GIVE WAY TO MORE SUN, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THE
INCOMING BOUNDARY SPARKS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR ALB AND PSF BETWEEN
18 AND 00 UTC. AS WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING, CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS AT ALB/PSF DIMINISH BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR POU FROM 21 TO 03 UTC. THE
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/STORM TO FORM IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. POU MAY END UP ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF CONVECTION BUT IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
PROB30 GROUP FELT WARRANTED.
AFTER 03 UTC/04, SKIES START TO CLEAR SUPPORTING RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WITH MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOW-LEVELS, FOG LOOKS TO
DEVELOP AT AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR FOG AND IFR VIS
IS AT GFL FROM 05 - 12 UTC BUT INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 08 -
12 UTC AT ALB, PSF, POU WHERE MVF/IFR VIS MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
IF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS OCCUR THIS P.M OR EVENING. ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 12-13 UTC WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AT ALL
SITES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT TO LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...31
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