593
FXUS61 KALY 031833
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
233 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, SO NO NOTABLE UPDATES WERE
MADE AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD OVERHEAD INTO TONIGHT, SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY,
WE REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE LARGELY REACHED THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT HAS
SEEN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY RISE TO AROUND AROUND 1000-1500
J/KG, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. HOWEVER,
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE HAVING BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY WORKED OVER DURING
LAST NIGHT'S UPSTREAM SEVERE CONVECTION; AN OVERALL LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING; AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS THE CONVERGENT
ZONE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC JET APPROACHES, THAT INSTABILITY IS
GOING TO LARGELY GO TO WASTE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON, OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A NON- SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SOUTH OF I-90.
IN FACT, MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FEATURE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE DEPARTING
UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL ENSURE
DECREASED MOISTURE CAN BE OVERCOME WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
CAN THEREFORE BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE PULSES
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. BY SUNDAY,
REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS STEADY. IN FACT, MONDAY, LABOR DAY,
WILL BE ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND CLEAR SKIES.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WON'T WIDELY INCREASE AGAIN UNTIL THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 18 UTC/03, A BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH WHICH HAS ALLOWED PSF, ALB, AND GFL CIGS TO START
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH POU ALREADY BACK TO VFR. INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP TO SHOW TO A TREND BACK TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 18 UTC. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT AS SKIES
GIVE WAY TO MORE SUN, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THE
INCOMING BOUNDARY SPARKS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR ALB AND PSF BETWEEN
18 AND 00 UTC. AS WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING, CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS AT ALB/PSF DIMINISH BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR POU FROM 21 TO 03 UTC. THE
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/STORM TO FORM IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. POU MAY END UP ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF CONVECTION BUT IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
PROB30 GROUP FELT WARRANTED.
AFTER 03 UTC/04, SKIES START TO CLEAR SUPPORTING RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WITH MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOW-LEVELS, FOG LOOKS TO
DEVELOP AT AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR FOG AND IFR VIS
IS AT GFL FROM 05 - 12 UTC BUT INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 08 -
12 UTC AT ALB, PSF, POU WHERE MVF/IFR VIS MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
IF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS OCCUR THIS P.M OR EVENING. ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 12-13 UTC WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AT ALL
SITES.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...FG.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...31
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